Development and validation of nomograms for predicting survival in patients with de novo metastatic triple-negative breast cancer.
Development and validation of nomograms for predicting survival in patients with de novo metastatic triple-negative breast cancer.
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用于预测新发转移性三阴性乳腺癌患者生存的列线图的开发和验证
DOI：
10.1038/s41598-022-18727-2
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发表时间：
2022-08-29
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Lv, Qing
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chen, Mao-Shan;Liu, Peng-Cheng;Yi, Jin-Zhi;Xu, Li;He, Tao;Wu, Hao;Yang, Ji-Qiao;Lv, Qing
转移性三阴性乳腺癌（mTNBC）是一种异质性疾病，预后不良。个体化生存预测工具对这一人群是有用的。我们使用监测、流行病学和最终结果数据库中的数据构建了乳腺癌特异性生存期（BCSS）和总生存期（OS）的预测列线图。一致性指数（C指数）、时间依赖性受试者工作特征曲线下面积（AUC）和校准曲线分别用于区分和校准训练和验证队列中的列线图。1962例mTNBC患者中位随访时间为13个月（四分位距，6-22个月），1639例（83.54%）死于任何原因，1469例（74.87%）死于乳腺癌。BCSS和OS的9个和10个独立的预后因素分别被确定和整合以构建列线图。训练队列中BCSS和OS列线图的C指数分别为0.694（95%CI 0.676-0.712）和0.699（95%CI 0.679-0.715），验证队列中分别为0.699（95%CI 0.686-0.712）和0.697（95%CI 0.679-0.715）。预测1年、2年和3年BCSS和OS的列线图的AUC值在内部和外部验证中显示出良好的特异性和灵敏度。校准曲线显示，在训练和验证队列中，实际和预测生存期之间具有良好的一致性。这些基于临床病理因素和治疗的诺模图可以可靠地预测mTNBC患者的生存。这可能是个性化医疗决策的有用工具。
Metastatic triple-negative breast cancer (mTNBC) is a heterogeneous disease with a poor prognosis. Individualized survival prediction tool is useful for this population. We constructed the predicted nomograms for breast cancer-specific survival (BCSS) and overall survival (OS) using the data identified from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. The Concordance index (C-index), the area under the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and the calibration curves were used for the discrimination and calibration of the nomograms in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. 1962 mTNBC patients with a median follow-up was 13 months (interquartile range, 6–22 months), 1639 (83.54%) cases died of any cause, and 1469 (74.87%) died of breast cancer. Nine and ten independent prognostic factors for BCSS and OS were identified and integrated to construct the nomograms, respectively. The C-indexes of the nomogram for BCSS and OS were 0.694 (95% CI 0.676–0.712) and 0.699 (95% CI 0.679–0.715) in the training cohort, and 0.699 (95% CI 0.686–0.712) and 0.697 (95% CI 0.679–0.715) in the validation cohort, respectively. The AUC values of the nomograms to predict 1-, 2-, and 3-year BCSS and OS indicated good specificity and sensitivity in internal and external validation. The calibration curves showed a favorable consistency between the actual and the predicted survival in the training and validation cohorts. These nomograms based on clinicopathological factors and treatment could reliably predict the survival of mTNBC patient. This may be a useful tool for individualized healthcare decision-making.
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影响因子：
4.6
作者：
Ding W;Ruan G;Lin Y;Zhu J;Tu C;Li Z
通讯作者：
Li Z
影响因子：
3.8
作者：
Malmgren JA;Mayer M;Atwood MK;Kaplan HG
通讯作者：
Kaplan HG
影响因子：
9
作者：
Lane WO;Thomas SM;Blitzblau RC;Plichta JK;Rosenberger LH;Fayanju OM;Hyslop T;Hwang ES;Greenup RA
通讯作者：
Greenup RA
影响因子：
3.8
作者：
Eng, Lee Guek;Dawood, Shaheenah;Dent, Rebecca
通讯作者：
Dent, Rebecca
影响因子：
45.3
作者：
Khan, Seema A.;Zhao, Fengmin;Sledge, George W.
通讯作者：
Sledge, George W.