Modelling trachoma post-2020: opportunities for mitigating the impact of COVID-19 and accelerating progress towards elimination.
Modelling trachoma post-2020: opportunities for mitigating the impact of COVID-19 and accelerating progress towards elimination.
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DOI：
10.1093/trstmh/traa171
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发表时间：
2021-03-06
影响因子：
2.2
通讯作者：
Hollingsworth TD
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Borlase A;Blumberg S;Callahan EK;Deiner MS;Nash SD;Porco TC;Solomon AW;Lietman TM;Prada JM;Hollingsworth TD
2019冠状病毒病大流行打乱了计划中的年度抗生素大规模药物管理（MDA）活动，这些活动是全球消除沙眼这一公共卫生问题的努力取得巨大成功的基石。使用数学模型，我们调查的影响，中断MDA在沙眼流行设置。我们评估了减轻这种影响的潜在措施，并考虑了加速沙眼消除目标可能无法实现的领域进展的替代战略。我们证明，对于那些在基线时高流行的地区，或者在三轮MDA后尚未达到沙眼消除阈值的地区，计划MDA的中断可能会导致延迟达到消除目标的时间超过中断的持续时间。我们还表明，在MDA恢复后的一年中进行额外一轮MDA可以有效地缓解这种延迟。对于地区的概率消除年度MDA已经很低，我们证明，更密集的MDA时间表，需要实现商定的目标。通过适当使用额外的MDA，可有效减轻COVID-19延迟达到消除沙眼目标的影响。此外，更频繁的MDA可能会加速实现2030年目标的进展。
The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted planned annual antibiotic mass drug administration (MDA) activities that have formed the cornerstone of the largely successful global efforts to eliminate trachoma as a public health problem. Using a mathematical model we investigate the impact of interruption to MDA in trachoma-endemic settings. We evaluate potential measures to mitigate this impact and consider alternative strategies for accelerating progress in those areas where the trachoma elimination targets may not be achievable otherwise. We demonstrate that for districts that were hyperendemic at baseline, or where the trachoma elimination thresholds have not already been achieved after three rounds of MDA, the interruption to planned MDA could lead to a delay to reaching elimination targets greater than the duration of interruption. We also show that an additional round of MDA in the year following MDA resumption could effectively mitigate this delay. For districts where the probability of elimination under annual MDA was already very low, we demonstrate that more intensive MDA schedules are needed to achieve agreed targets. Through appropriate use of additional MDA, the impact of COVID-19 in terms of delay to reaching trachoma elimination targets can be effectively mitigated. Additionally, more frequent MDA may accelerate progress towards 2030 goals.
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影响因子：
168.9
作者：
Taylor, Hugh R.;Burton, Matthew J.;Wright, Heathcote
通讯作者：
Wright, Heathcote
影响因子：
120.7
作者：
Chidambaram, JD;Alemayehu, W;Lietman, TM
通讯作者：
Lietman, TM
影响因子：
3.3
作者：
Last A;Burr S;Alexander N;Harding-Esch E;Roberts CH;Nabicassa M;Cassama ETDS;Mabey D;Holland M;Bailey R
通讯作者：
Bailey R
影响因子：
4.2
作者：
Bailey, R;Duong, T;Mabey, D
通讯作者：
Mabey, D
影响因子：
3.8
作者：
Pinsent, Amy;Gambhir, Manoj
通讯作者：
Gambhir, Manoj