Optimising risk reduction: An expected utility approach for marginal risk reduction during regulatory decision making
Optimising risk reduction: An expected utility approach for marginal risk reduction during regulatory decision making
复制标题
优化风险降低：监管决策过程中降低边际风险的预期效用方法
DOI：
10.1016/j.ress.2009.05.005
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发表时间：
2009
影响因子：
8.1
通讯作者：
Li J
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Li J
在实践中，风险和不确定性在许多监管过程中基本上是不可避免的。监管机构经常面临风险-收益权衡，因为零风险既不可行，也负担不起。虽然成本效益分析在风险管理的许多情况下都是重要的，但它在决策过程中应该发挥什么作用仍然存在争议。对成本效益分析的一个批评是，决策者在决策时应该考虑边际效益和成本，而不是当前的效益和成本。本文应用期望效用理论研究了风险下的监管决策问题，提出了一种新的成本收益分析方法。该方法直接考虑风险的降低，实现了边际成本效益分析。通过应用这种方法，最优的监管决策，最大限度地减少风险的边际效益可以考虑。这为参与监管活动的利益攸关方提供了一个透明和合理的标准。评估抗震改造方案的一个例子来证明所提出的方法的潜力。
In practice, risk and uncertainty are essentially unavoidable in many regulation processes. Regulators frequently face a risk-benefit trade-off since zero risk is neither practicable nor affordable. Although it is accepted that cost–benefit analysis is important in many scenarios of risk management, what role it should play in a decision process is still controversial. One criticism of cost–benefit analysis is that decision makers should consider marginal benefits and costs, not present ones, in their decision making. In this paper, we investigate the problem of regulatory decision making under risk by applying expected utility theory and present a new approach of cost–benefit analysis. Directly taking into consideration the reduction of the risks, this approach achieves marginal cost–benefit analysis. By applying this approach, the optimal regulatory decision that maximizes the marginal benefit of risk reduction can be considered. This provides a transparent and reasonable criterion for stakeholders involved in the regulatory activity. An example of evaluating seismic retrofitting alternatives is provided to demonstrate the potential of the proposed approach.
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