Impacts on terrestrial biodiversity of moving from a 2°C to a 1.5°C target.
Impacts on terrestrial biodiversity of moving from a 2°C to a 1.5°C target.
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DOI：
10.1098/rsta.2016.0456
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发表时间：
2018-05-13
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Malhi Y
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Smith P;Price J;Molotoks A;Warren R;Malhi Y
我们应用了一个最近开发的工具来研究从2°C到1.5°C目标的气候风险对生物多样性的降低。然后，我们回顾了最近的文献研究的影响（a）陆基减缓方案和（B）陆基温室气体清除方案对生物多样性。我们表明，将变暖控制在1.5°C与2°C相比，可以显着减少面临50%气候范围潜在损失的物种数量。此外，地球仪的面积将增加5.5-14%，可能成为动植物的气候避难所，相当于目前的全球保护区网络。通过减缓实现1.5°C目标的努力在很大程度上与生物多样性保护/增强相一致。就陆基温室气体清除技术对生物多样性的影响而言，有些技术（如土壤固碳）可能是中性或积极的，有些技术（如具有碳捕获和储存的生物能源）可能导致冲突，还有一些技术（如造林/再造林）在以有意义的温室气体清除所需的规模应用时，则是针对具体情况的。实现1.5°C目标的额外努力带来了一些风险，特别是如果管理不当，但也带来了机遇。本文是《巴黎协定：了解世界变暖比工业化前水平高1.5°C的物理和社会挑战》主题的一部分。
We applied a recently developed tool to examine the reduction in climate risk to biodiversity in moving from a 2°C to a 1.5°C target. We then reviewed the recent literature examining the impact of (a) land-based mitigation options and (b) land-based greenhouse gas removal options on biodiversity. We show that holding warming to 1.5°C versus 2°C can significantly reduce the number of species facing a potential loss of 50% of their climatic range. Further, there would be an increase of 5.5–14% of the globe that could potentially act as climatic refugia for plants and animals, an area equivalent to the current global protected area network. Efforts to meet the 1.5°C target through mitigation could largely be consistent with biodiversity protection/enhancement. For impacts of land-based greenhouse gas removal technologies on biodiversity, some (e.g. soil carbon sequestration) could be neutral or positive, others (e.g. bioenergy with carbon capture and storage) are likely to lead to conflicts, while still others (e.g. afforestation/reforestation) are context-specific, when applied at scales necessary for meaningful greenhouse gas removal. Additional effort to meet the 1.5°C target presents some risks, particularly if inappropriately managed, but it also presents opportunities. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.
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