Participatory mapping identifies risk areas and environmental predictors of endemic anthrax in rural Africa.
Participatory mapping identifies risk areas and environmental predictors of endemic anthrax in rural Africa.
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DOI：
10.1038/s41598-022-14081-5
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发表时间：
2022-06-22
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Lembo, Tiziana
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Aminu, Olubunmi R.;Forde, Taya L.;Ekwem, Divine;Johnson, Paul;Nelli, Luca;Mmbaga, Blandina T.;Mshanga, Deogratius;Shand, Mike;Shirima, Gabriel;Walsh, Markus;Zadoks, Ruth N.;Biek, Roman;Lembo, Tiziana
疾病制图揭示了发病率的地理差异，这有助于确定控制工作的优先次序。然而，在最需要这一点的领域，往往缺乏生成所需数据的资源。利用土著知识的参与式制图是确定中低收入国家流行病风险地区的一种潜在方法。在这里，我们将该方法与基于地理信息系统的环境变量分析相结合，作为研究非洲农村由孢子形成细菌炭疽芽孢杆菌引起的地方性炭疽的新方法。我们的目标是：(1)利用社区知识确定炭疽高风险地区；(2)加深我们对这些地区的环境特征的认识；(3)对炭疽风险进行空间预测。来自坦桑尼亚北部恩戈罗恩戈罗保护区（NCA）的社区成员被要求在地理参考地图上绘制他们认为对其牲畜构成炭疽风险的区域，那里的动物和人类都高度流行炭疽。数字化后，在定义区域内和区域外生成随机点，分别代表高风险和低风险区域。回归分析用于确定可能预测炭疽风险的环境变量。研究人员将这些结果结合起来，以预测成为炭疽热高风险地区的可能性在不同的太空中是如何变化的。参与式制图确定了14个离散的高风险区域，面积从0.2至212.9 km2不等，占NCA的8.4%。炭疽高风险地区与增加与炭疽芽孢杆菌孢子接触的因素呈正相关，而与病原体存活相关的因素呈正相关：靠近内陆水体，野生动物和牲畜聚集的地方，有机碳含量低，这可能表明动物在靠近土壤表面的地方放牧并摄入孢子的可能性增加。预测的高风险区域位于NCA的中心，大多数牛群在寻找资源的过程中可能会遇到这些区域。我们证明，参与式制图与空间分析相结合，可以为疾病风险地理学提供新的见解。这种方法可用于在资源匮乏的环境中优先控制领域，特别是具有环境传播的疾病。
Disease mapping reveals geographical variability in incidence, which can help to prioritise control efforts. However, in areas where this is most needed, resources to generate the required data are often lacking. Participatory mapping, which makes use of indigenous knowledge, is a potential approach to identify risk areas for endemic diseases in low- and middle-income countries. Here we combine this method with Geographical Information System-based analyses of environmental variables as a novel approach to study endemic anthrax, caused by the spore-forming bacterium Bacillus anthracis, in rural Africa. Our aims were to: (1) identify high-risk anthrax areas using community knowledge; (2) enhance our understanding of the environmental characteristics associated with these areas; and (3) make spatial predictions of anthrax risk. Community members from the Ngorongoro Conservation Area (NCA), northern Tanzania, where anthrax is highly prevalent in both animals and humans, were asked to draw areas they perceived to pose anthrax risks to their livestock on geo-referenced maps. After digitisation, random points were generated within and outside the defined areas to represent high- and low-risk areas, respectively. Regression analyses were used to identify environmental variables that may predict anthrax risk. Results were combined to predict how the probability of being a high-risk area for anthrax varies across space. Participatory mapping identified fourteen discrete high-risk areas ranging from 0.2 to 212.9 km2 in size and occupying 8.4% of the NCA. Areas that pose a high risk of anthrax were positively associated with factors that increase contact with Bacillus anthracis spores rather than those associated with the pathogen’s survival: close proximity to inland water bodies, where wildlife and livestock congregate, and low organic carbon content, which may indicate an increased likelihood of animals grazing close to soil surface and ingesting spores. Predicted high-risk areas were located in the centre of the NCA, which is likely to be encountered by most herds during movements in search for resources. We demonstrate that participatory mapping combined with spatial analyses can provide novel insights into the geography of disease risk. This approach can be used to prioritise areas for control in low-resource settings, especially for diseases with environmental transmission.
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影响因子：
3.8
作者：
Aminu OR;Lembo T;Zadoks RN;Biek R;Lewis S;Kiwelu I;Mmbaga BT;Mshanga D;Shirima G;Denwood M;Forde TL
通讯作者：
Forde TL
影响因子：
28.3
作者：
Carlson, Colin J.;Kracalik, Ian T.;Blackburn, Jason K.
通讯作者：
Blackburn, Jason K.
影响因子：
2.2
作者：
Clegg, S. B.;Turnbull, P. C. B.;Lindeque, R. M.
通讯作者：
Lindeque, R. M.
影响因子：
1.4
作者：
Galvin, Kathleen A.;Thornton, Philip K.;Sunderland, Jennifer
通讯作者：
Sunderland, Jennifer
影响因子：
4.4
作者：
Dey, Rafik;Hoffman, Paul S.;Glomski, Ian J.
通讯作者：
Glomski, Ian J.