Recovery of assessed global fish stocks remains uncertain.
Recovery of assessed global fish stocks remains uncertain.
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.2108532118
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发表时间：
2021-08-03
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Worm B
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Britten GL;Duarte CM;Worm B
对过度捕捞的担忧引发了关于全球捕捞渔业的现状和未来前景、对海洋生物多样性的相关威胁以及可供人类消费的产量下降的持续辩论。管理改革的目的是减轻捕捞压力，并将枯竭的种群恢复到生物量和开采率，以实现最大的可持续产量。最近的分析表明，经科学评估的种群--占全球海洋鱼类产量的一半以上--平均达到甚至超过了这些目标，这表明渔业治理的有效性发生了根本性转变。然而，这些结论是基于计算得出的，这些计算需要特定的选择，以求取股票间较高的波动性的平均值，以得出全球趋势。在这里，我们评估这些结论的稳健性，通过检查回收率在各个股票上的分布，并通过应用各种看似合理的平均技术。我们表明，不同的方法对全球渔业状况产生了明显不同的轨迹，10种方法中有4种表明尚未实现恢复，高达48%的个体种群仍低于生物量目标，40%的捕捞高于可持续比率。此外，最近的回收率与零的差别不大，高达46%的个体种群生物量呈下降趋势，29%的种群开采率呈上升趋势。这些结果告诫不要对渔业作出过于乐观的评估，并支持采取预防性管理办法，以确保在世界范围内全面重建枯竭的渔业。
Concerns over overexploitation have fueled an ongoing debate on the current state and future prospects of global capture fisheries, associated threats to marine biodiversity, and declining yields available for human consumption. Management reforms have aimed to reduce fishing pressure and recover depleted stocks to biomass and exploitation rates that allow for maximum sustainable yield. Recent analyses suggest that scientifically assessed stocks, contributing over half of global marine fish catch, have, on average, reached or even exceeded these targets, suggesting a fundamental shift in the effectiveness of fisheries governance. However, such conclusions are based on calculations requiring specific choices to average over high interstock variability to derive a global trend. Here we evaluate the robustness of these conclusions by examining the distribution of recovery rates across individual stocks and by applying a diversity of plausible averaging techniques. We show that different methods produce markedly divergent trajectories of global fisheries status, with 4 of 10 methods suggesting that recovery has not yet been achieved, with up to 48% of individual stocks remaining below biomass targets and 40% exploited above sustainable rates. Furthermore, recent rates of recovery are only marginally different from zero, with up to 46% of individual stocks trending downward in biomass and 29% of stocks trending upward in exploitation rate. These results caution against overoptimistic assessments of fisheries writ large and support a precautionary management approach to ensure full rebuilding of depleted fisheries worldwide.
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1902657116
发表时间：
2019-08-06
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Memarzadeh, Milad;Britten, Gregory L.;Boettiger, Carl
通讯作者：
Boettiger, Carl
影响因子：
56.9
作者：
Kroodsma, David A.;Mayorga, Juan;Worm, Boris
通讯作者：
Worm, Boris
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1909726116
发表时间：
2020-01-28
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Hilborn, Ray;Amoroso, Ricardo Oscar;Ye, Yimin
通讯作者：
Ye, Yimin
影响因子：
56.9
作者：
Worm, Boris;Hilborn, Ray;Zeller, Dirk
通讯作者：
Zeller, Dirk
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1900194116
发表时间：
2019-06-25
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Lotze, Heike K.;Tittensor, Derek P.;Worm, Boris
通讯作者：
Worm, Boris