Addressing risks to biodiversity arising from a changing climate: The need for ecosystem restoration in the Tana River Basin, Kenya.
Addressing risks to biodiversity arising from a changing climate: The need for ecosystem restoration in the Tana River Basin, Kenya.
复制标题
DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0254879
复制
发表时间：
2021
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Price JT
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jenkins RLM;Warren RF;Price JT
气候变化预计将对全球物种的分布产生重大影响，但对非洲部分地区的影响的研究有限。利用物种分布模型，本研究模拟了气候变化对肯尼亚具有重要经济意义和生态多样性的塔纳河流域陆地生物多样性（鸟类、哺乳动物、爬行动物、两栖动物和植物）的风险。预计只要升温2°C（相对于工业化前水平），物种丰富度就会大幅减少，其中鸟类和植物受到的影响最大。在流域内确定了潜在的生物多样性气候避难所，但往往与已经转变为农业或预留用于农业扩张的地区重叠，而且大多数都在保护区之外。同样，在全球变暖程度更高的情况下，一些保护区没有预计的避难所，这表明随着气候变化，它们可能不足以保护盆地的生物多样性。然而，如果《巴黎协定》将全球变暖限制在“远低于2°C”而不是仅仅2°C的目标得以实现，生物多样性面临的风险就会小得多。随着气候变暖，为动植物提供避难所的可能性大大降低。例如，在升温1.5°C时，82%的流域仍然适合至少75%的植物生长，而在升温2°C和4.5°C时，这一比例分别为23%和3%。这项研究首次评估了发展计划和气候变化对塔纳河流域生物多样性的综合影响，包括确定潜在的恢复区域，并有助于更好地了解肯尼亚的生物多样性保护和适应方案。
Climate change is projected to have significant effects on the distribution of species globally, but research into the implications in parts of Africa has been limited. Using species distribution modelling, this study models climate change-related risks to the terrestrial biodiversity (birds, mammals, reptiles, amphibians and plants) of Kenya’s economically-important and ecologically diverse Tana River Basin. Large reductions in species richness are projected with just 2°C warming (relative to preindustrial levels) with birds and plants seeing the greatest impact. Potential climate refugia for biodiversity are identified within the basin, but often overlap with areas already converted to agriculture or set aside for agricultural expansion, and the majority are outside protected areas. Similarly, some protected areas contain no projected refugia at higher levels of global warming, showing they may be insufficient to protect the basin’s biodiversity as climate changes. However, risks to biodiversity are much smaller if the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting global warming to ‘well below 2°C’ warming, rather than 2°C only, is met. The potential for refugia for plants and animals decreases strongly with warming. For example, 82% of the basin remaining climatically suitable for at least 75% of the plants currently present at 1.5°C warming, as compared with 23% at 2°C and 3% at 4.5°C. This research provides the first assessment of the combined effects of development plans and climate change on biodiversity of the Tana River Basin, including identifying potential areas for restoration, and contributes to a greater understanding of biodiversity protection and adaptation options in Kenya.
登录
查看更多内容
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Foden WB;Butchart SH;Stuart SN;Vié JC;Akçakaya HR;Angulo A;DeVantier LM;Gutsche A;Turak E;Cao L;Donner SD;Katariya V;Bernard R;Holland RA;Hughes AF;O'Hanlon SE;Garnett ST;Sekercioğlu CH;Mace GM
通讯作者：
Mace GM
影响因子：
2.6
作者：
Brown, Jason L.;Yoder, Anne D.
通讯作者：
Yoder, Anne D.
影响因子：
56.9
作者：
Chen, I-Ching;Hill, Jane K.;Thomas, Chris D.
通讯作者：
Thomas, Chris D.
影响因子：
6.4
作者：
Faramarzi, Monireh;Abbaspour, Karim C.;Yang, Hong
通讯作者：
Yang, Hong
影响因子：
1.1
作者：
Barendse, Jaco;Roux, Dirk;Nieuwoudt, Cara
通讯作者：
Nieuwoudt, Cara