Determined to stop? Longitudinal analysis of the desire to have no more children in rural Mozambique.
Determined to stop? Longitudinal analysis of the desire to have no more children in rural Mozambique.
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DOI：
10.1080/00324728.2017.1334957
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发表时间：
2017-11
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Agadjanian V
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hayford SR;Agadjanian V
经典的人口统计学理论将理想的家庭规模概念化为一个固定的目标，指导生育年龄段的生育意愿。然而，越来越多的研究表明，生育计划，即使是名义上的完整生育的长期计划，也会因短期条件而改变。由于数据有限，这项研究的大部分集中在低生育率的情况下，但短期条件可能在高生育率的情况下更加重要。本文使用了三波在莫桑比克农村收集的调查数据，研究在相对高生育率和高个人和社会不稳定的背景下，停止生育的愿望的预测因素。我们采用固定效应模型来评估人口因素、家庭经济状况和健康状况如何影响停止生育的意愿，并控制恒定的个人特征。结果表明，波动停止的愿望，并表现出有意义的个人和家庭条件和生育目标之间的关联。
Classic demographic theories conceptualize desired family size as a fixed goal that guides fertility intentions over the childbearing years. However, a growing body of research shows that fertility plans, even nominally long-term plans for completed childbearing, change in response to short-term conditions. Because of data limitations, much of this research has focused on low-fertility contexts, but short-term conditions are likely to be even more important in high-fertility contexts. This paper uses three waves of survey data collected in rural Mozambique to study predictors of the desire to stop childbearing in a context of relatively high fertility and high individual and social instability. We employ fixed-effects models to assess how desires to stop childbearing are shaped by demographic factors, household economic conditions, and health status, controlling for constant individual characteristics. Results show fluctuation in stopping desires and demonstrate meaningful associations between individual and household conditions and fertility goals.
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