Age-Structured Modeling of COVID-19 Epidemic in the USA, UAE and Algeria
Age-Structured Modeling of COVID-19 Epidemic in the USA, UAE and Algeria
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DOI：
10.1016/j.aej.2020.08.053
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发表时间：
2020-09-10
影响因子：
6.8
通讯作者：
Touaoula TM
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bentout S;Tridane A;Djilali S;Touaoula TM
据 WHO 称，由于 COVID-19 仍在 180 多个国家/地区传播。有必要了解这种感染的动态并预测其对公共卫生能力的影响。这项工作旨在预测来自不同大陆的三个国家的疾病进展：美国、阿拉伯联合酋长国和阿尔及利亚。现有数据显示，该病在老年人和有合并症的人群中死亡率较高。因此，我们考虑年龄结构模型。我们的模型还考虑了 COVID-19 的两个主要组成部分 (a) 住院感染者人数，因此，我们估计所需的床位数量（急症和危重症） (2) 医护人员 (HCP) 可能感染的情况。因此，该模型预测了实施非药物干预措施（NPI）前后的高峰时间和高峰感染病例数，我们还将这一发现与全面封锁的情况进行了比较。最后，我们调查了缺乏适当的个人防护装备（PPE）对疾病传播的影响。
As the COVID-19 is still spreading in more than 180 countries, according to WHO. There is a need to understand the dynamics of this infection and predict its the impact on the public health capacity. This work aims to forecast the progress of the disease in three countries from different continents: The United States of America, the United Arab Emirates and Algeria. The existing data shows that the fatality of the disease is high in elderly people and people with comorbidity. Therefore, we consider an age-structured model. Our model also takes into consider two main components of the COVID-19 (a) the number of Infected hospitalized people, therefore, we estimate the number of beds (acute and critical) needed (2) the possible infection of the healthcare personals (HCP). Hence, the model predict the peak time and the number of infectious cases at the peak before and after the implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI), and we also compare this finding with case of full lockdown. Finally, we investigate the impact of the shortage of proper personal protective equipment (PPE) on the spread of the disease.
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.2004064117
发表时间：
2020-04-21
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Moghadas, Seyed M.;Shoukat, Affan;Galvani, Alison P.
通讯作者：
Galvani, Alison P.
影响因子：
7.8
作者：
Djilali, Salih;Ghanbari, Behzad
通讯作者：
Ghanbari, Behzad
影响因子：
2.7
作者：
Sene, Ndolane;Srivastava, Gautam
通讯作者：
Srivastava, Gautam
影响因子：
64.8
作者：
Lai, Shengjie;Ruktanonchai, Nick W.;Tatem, Andrew J.
通讯作者：
Tatem, Andrew J.
DOI：
10.1016/s1473-3099(20)30243-7
发表时间：
2020-06-01
期刊：
The Lancet. Infectious diseases
影响因子：
--
作者：
Verity, Robert;Okell, Lucy C;Ferguson, Neil M
通讯作者：
Ferguson, Neil M