Dynamic modelling shows substantial contribution of ecosystem restoration to climate change mitigation
Dynamic modelling shows substantial contribution of ecosystem restoration to climate change mitigation
复制标题
动态模型显示生态系统恢复对减缓气候变化的重大贡献
DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/ac3c6c
复制
发表时间：
2021
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Littleton E
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Littleton E
将全球变暖限制在1.5摄氏度以内，需要大幅减少排放，并从大气中去除二氧化碳。大多数模拟的1.5℃路径都假设以生物质能的形式通过碳捕获和储存进行大量清除，这将通过广泛的土地利用变化增加生物多样性和粮食安全的风险。最近，通过基于生态系统的方法来描述和量化潜在清除的多种努力在气候政策话语中获得了牵引力。然而，这些选择尚未以系统和科学可靠的方式进行评估。我们提供了一个动态全球植被模型量化的生态系统恢复潜力的空间明确估计。将涵盖森林恢复、再造林、减少采伐、农林业和森林放牧的模拟结合起来，发现到2100年将额外封存93亿吨摄氏度，相对于基线缓解途径，将全球平均温度升高减少约0.12摄氏度（5%-95%范围0.06摄氏度- 0.21摄氏度）。最终，实现升温1.5摄氏度目标的途径如果包括能够带来多重效益的土地管理方案，包括生态系统恢复、生物多样性保护和抗灾农业实践，就能获得更广泛的公众支持。
Limiting global warming to a 1.5 C temperature rise requires drastic emissions reductions and removal of carbon-dioxide from the atmosphere. Most modelled pathways for 1.5 C assume substantial removals in the form of biomass energy with carbon capture and storage, which brings with it increasing risks to biodiversity and food security via extensive land-use change. Recently, multiple efforts to describe and quantify potential removals via ecosystem-based approaches have gained traction in the climate policy discourse. However, these options have yet to be evaluated in a systematic and scientifically robust way. We provide spatially explicit estimates of ecosystem restoration potential quantified with a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model. Simulations covering forest restoration, reforestation, reduced harvest, agroforestry and silvopasture were combined and found to sequester an additional 93 Gt C by 2100, reducing mean global temperature increase by∼ 0.12 C (5%–95% range 0.06 C–0.21 C) relative to a baseline mitigation pathway. Ultimately, pathways to achieving the 1.5 C goal garner broader public support when they include land management options that can bring about multiple benefits, including ecosystem restoration, biodiversity protection, and resilient agricultural practices.
登录
查看更多内容
DOI：
10.1029/2020ef001900
发表时间：
2021-06
期刊：
Earth's future
影响因子：
--
作者：
Nicholls Z;Meinshausen M;Lewis J;Corradi MR;Dorheim K;Gasser T;Gieseke R;Hope AP;Leach NJ;McBride LA;Quilcaille Y;Rogelj J;Salawitch RJ;Samset BH;Sandstad M;Shiklomanov A;Skeie RB;Smith CJ;Smith SJ;Su X;Tsutsui J;Vega-Westhoff B;Woodard DL
通讯作者：
Woodard DL
考虑当地生物地球物理引起的降温和变暖，调整造林模式
影响因子：
4.8
作者：
M. Windisch;Florian Humpenöder;A. Popp
通讯作者：
A. Popp
影响因子：
5.5
作者：
Kate Dooley;Peter K. Christoff;K. Nicholas
通讯作者：
Kate Dooley;Peter K. Christoff;K. Nicholas
对“全球树木恢复潜力”的评论
影响因子：
56.9
作者：
J. Veldman;Julie C. Aleman;Swanni T. Alvarado;T. Michael Anderson;Sally Archibald;William J. Bond;T. Boutton;Nina Buchmann;É. Buisson;J. Canadell;Michele de Sá Dechoum;Milton H. Diaz;G. Durigan;J. Ewel;G. W. Fernandes;A. Fidelis;Forrest Fleischman;S. Good;Daniel M. Griffith;J. Hermann;William A. Hoffmann;Soizig Le Stradic;C. E. Lehmann;Grégory Mahy;Ashish N. Nerlekar;J. Nippert;Reed F. Noss;Colin Osborne;Gerhard E. Overbeck;Catherine L. Parr;J. Pausas;R. Toby Pennington;M. Perring;F. Putz;J. Ratnam;M. Sankaran;Isabel B. Schmidt;C. Schmitt;Fernando A. O. Silveira;A. C. Staver;N. Stevens;Christopher J. Still;Caroline A E Strömberg;V. Temperton;J. Varner;N. Zaloumis
通讯作者：
N. Zaloumis
影响因子：
5
作者：
Fagan, Matthew E.;DeFries, Ruth S.;Chazdon, Robin L.
通讯作者：
Chazdon, Robin L.