Modelling the impact of a high-uptake bivalent booster scenario on the COVID-19 burden and healthcare costs in New York City.
Modelling the impact of a high-uptake bivalent booster scenario on the COVID-19 burden and healthcare costs in New York City.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.lana.2023.100555
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发表时间：
2023-08
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Galvani, Alison P.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Pandey, Abhishek;Fitzpatrick, Meagan C.;Moghadas, Seyed M.;Vilches, Thomas N.;Ko, Charles;Vasan, Ashwin;Galvani, Alison P.
纽约市（NYC）符合条件的居民对COVID-19二价加强疫苗（针对原始SARS-CoV-2毒株和Omicron变异株的亚变异株BA.4和BA.5）的接种量一直不高，而且还在下降。评估在纽约市提高二价疫苗的人口水平加强接种覆盖率的影响可以帮助为疫苗接种和潜在的成本节约提供信息。我们校准了一个基于病原体的疾病传播模型，用于纽约市确诊和可能的COVID-19病例，并模拟了两种情景下的预测结果。在基本情况下，我们假设于2022年12月期间继续接种疫苗，平均每日接种率为每100，000人接种92剂疫苗。在反事实情景中，我们模拟了2023年1月1日至2023年3月31日之间的高接种率情景，平均每日每10万人接种296剂疫苗，增加了纽约市的二价疫苗覆盖率，以匹配2020-2021年季节的年龄特异性流感疫苗覆盖率。活动期外的疫苗接种率与基本情况相同。与基础病例相比，高摄取情景在2023年1月1日至6月底期间避免了88，274例（95%置信区间[CI]：77，097 - 100，342）病例，并防止了2，917例（95% CI：2，557 - 3，267）住院。避免的结果导致直接医疗保健成本净节省2.172亿美元（95% CI：1.900 - 2.422）。我们估计，高吸收率情景将避免72，879天（95% CI：63，894 - 82，228）的学生因COVID-19疾病而缺课。我们的研究结果说明了COVID-19疫苗在预防严重健康后果、避免医疗成本和维持纽约市教育连续性方面的持续效益。，，
Uptake of the COVID-19 bivalent booster vaccine (targeting the original SARS-CoV-2 strain and subvariants BA.4 and BA.5 of the Omicron variant) among eligible residents of New York City (NYC) has been modest and declining. Assessing the impact of improved population-level booster coverage with bivalent vaccines in NYC can help inform investment towards vaccination and potential cost-savings. We calibrated an agent-based model of disease transmission to confirmed and probable cases of COVID-19 in NYC and simulated it to project outcomes under two scenarios. In the base case scenario, we assumed that vaccination continued with the average daily rate of 92 vaccine doses per 100,000 administered during December 2022. In the counterfactual scenario, we modeled a high-uptake scenario between January 1, 2023 and March 31, 2023, with an average daily rate of 296 vaccine doses per 100,000 population that increased bivalent coverage in NYC to match the age-specific influenza vaccine coverage of the 2020–2021 season. Vaccination rate outside the campaign duration remained the same as the base case scenario. Compared to the base case, the high-uptake scenario averted 88,274 (95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 77,097–100,342) cases, and prevented 2,917 (95% CI: 2,557–3,267) hospitalizations between January 1 through the end of June 2023. Averted outcomes resulted in net savings of $217.2 (95% CI: 190.0–242.2) million in direct healthcare costs. We estimated that the high-uptake scenario would avert 72,879 (95% CI: 63,894–82,228) days of student absenteeism from schools due to COVID-19 illness. Our results illustrate the continued benefits of COVID-19 vaccines in preventing severe health outcomes, averting healthcare costs, and maintaining educational continuity in NYC. The , The , , (CDC), NSF, The , and The .
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影响因子：
13.8
作者：
Padamsee TJ;Bond RM;Dixon GN;Hovick SR;Na K;Nisbet EC;Wegener DT;Garrett RK
通讯作者：
Garrett RK
影响因子：
13.8
作者：
Sah, Pratha;Vilches, Thomas N.;Moghadas, Seyed M.;Pandey, Abhishek;Gondi, Suhas;Schneider, Eric C.;Singer, Jesse;Chokshi, Dave A.;Galvani, Alison P.
通讯作者：
Galvani, Alison P.
影响因子：
15.1
作者：
Parpia AS;Martinez I;El-Sayed AM;Wells CR;Myers L;Duncan J;Collins J;Fitzpatrick MC;Galvani AP;Pandey A
通讯作者：
Pandey A
DOI：
10.15585/mmwr.mm7148e1
发表时间：
2022-12-02
期刊：
MMWR. Morbidity and mortality weekly report
影响因子：
--
作者：
通讯作者：
--
DOI：
10.1016/j.lana.2021.100085
发表时间：
2022-01
期刊：
Lancet regional health. Americas
影响因子：
--
作者：
Shoukat A;Vilches TN;Moghadas SM;Sah P;Schneider EC;Shaff J;Ternier A;Chokshi DA;Galvani AP
通讯作者：
Galvani AP