Lives saved and hospitalizations averted by COVID-19 vaccination in New York City: a modeling study.
Lives saved and hospitalizations averted by COVID-19 vaccination in New York City: a modeling study.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.lana.2021.100085
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发表时间：
2022-01
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Galvani AP
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Shoukat A;Vilches TN;Moghadas SM;Sah P;Schneider EC;Shaff J;Ternier A;Chokshi DA;Galvani AP
自纽约市（NYC）开始接种COVID-19疫苗后，尽管出现高传染性变异株，但病例已较二零二零年一月的疫情高峰期下降逾10倍。我们评估了纽约市疫苗接种运动对挽救生命以及避免住院和病例的影响。我们使用了基于年龄分层的COVID-19模型，以包括在纽约市确定的Alpha，Gamma，Delta和Iota变体的传播动态。该模型进行了校准，并拟合到纽约市报告的发病率，考虑到每种变体的相对传播率和疫苗接种推广数据。我们模拟了纽约市在没有接种疫苗的反事实情景下爆发的COVID-19疫情，并将由此产生的疾病负担与实际接种疫苗速度下报告的病例数、住院人数和死亡人数进行了比较。我们发现，如果没有接种疫苗，由于Alpha和Delta变体的传播，纽约市将出现COVID-19的春季浪潮。纽约市的COVID-19疫苗接种活动阻止了这样的浪潮，并避免了290，467人（95% CrI：232，551 - 342，664）例，48，076（95%CrI：42，264 - 53，301）住院，2020年12月14日至2021年7月15日期间有8，508例（95%CrI：7，374 - 9，543）死亡。我们的研究表明，纽约市的疫苗接种计划有助于大幅减少COVID-19负担，并抑制了可归因于更易传播的变异的病例激增。由于Delta变异主要在未接种疫苗的人群中流行，我们的研究结果强调了加快疫苗接种和缩小疫苗接种覆盖率差距的迫切需要。这项研究得到了英联邦基金的支持。
Following the start of COVID-19 vaccination in New York City (NYC), cases have declined over 10-fold from the outbreak peak in January 2020, despite the emergence of highly transmissible variants. We evaluated the impact of NYC's vaccination campaign on saving lives as well as averting hospitalizations and cases. We used an age-stratified agent-based model of COVID-19 to include transmission dynamics of Alpha, Gamma, Delta and Iota variants as identified in NYC. The model was calibrated and fitted to reported incidence in NYC, accounting for the relative transmissibility of each variant and vaccination rollout data. We simulated COVID-19 outbreak in NYC under the counterfactual scenario of no vaccination and compared the resulting disease burden with the number of cases, hospitalizations and deaths reported under the actual pace of vaccination. We found that without vaccination, there would have been a spring-wave of COVID-19 in NYC due to the spread of Alpha and Delta variants. The COVID-19 vaccination campaign in NYC prevented such a wave, and averted 290,467 (95% CrI: 232,551 — 342,664) cases, 48,076 (95% CrI: 42,264 — 53,301) hospitalizations, and 8,508 (95% CrI: 7,374 — 9,543) deaths from December 14, 2020 to July 15, 2021. Our study demonstrates that the vaccination program in NYC was instrumental to substantially reducing the COVID-19 burden and suppressing a surge of cases attributable to more transmissible variants. As the Delta variant sweeps predominantly among unvaccinated individuals, our findings underscore the urgent need to accelerate vaccine uptake and close the vaccination coverage gaps. This study was supported by The Commonwealth Fund.
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