Risk Factors Analysis and Nomogram Development for Pancreatic Pseudocyst in Idiopathic Chronic Pancreatitis
Risk Factors Analysis and Nomogram Development for Pancreatic Pseudocyst in Idiopathic Chronic Pancreatitis
复制标题
特发性慢性胰腺炎胰腺假性囊肿的危险因素分析及列线图绘制
DOI：
10.1097/mpa.0000000000001610
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发表时间：
2020-07
期刊：
影响因子：
2.9
通讯作者：
Hu Liang-Hao
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Liu Yu;Wang Dan;Hao Lu;Wang Teng;Zhang Di;Yang Huai-Yu;Ma Jia-Yi;Li Juan;Zhang Ling-Ling;Lin Kun;Chen Cui;Guo Hong-Lei;Bi Ya-Wei;Xin Lei;Zeng Xiang-Peng;Chen Hui;Xie Ting;Liao Zhuan;Cong Zhi-Jie;Li Zhao-Shen;Hu Liang-Hao
补充数字内容可在文本中找到。目的探讨特发性慢性胰腺炎（ICP）并发胰腺假性囊肿（PPC）的危险因素，建立PPC诺模图，以利于早期诊断。方法选取2000年1月至2013年12月在我院住院的ICP患者为研究对象。PPC的累积发生率采用Kaplan-Meier方法确定。将患者按2：1的比例随机分为训练组和验证组。基于训练队列，通过考克斯比例风险回归模型确定PPC的危险因素。根据危险因素构建诺模图。结果共纳入ICP患者1633例，中位随访时间9.8年。14.7%（240/1633）的患者在ICP发作后观察到胰腺假性囊肿。在ICP发作后3、5和10年，PPC的累积发生率分别为8.2%、10.4%和12.9%。男性、吸烟史、重症急性胰腺炎史、ICP诊断时/诊断前的慢性疼痛和主胰管复杂的病理改变被认为是PPC发生的危险因素。用这些危险因素构建的诺模图取得了良好的一致性指标。结论通过诺模图可以估计PPC的危险性。对高危患者应密切随访，以帮助早期诊断PPC。
Supplemental digital content is available in the text. Objective The study concerns identifying risk factors and developing nomogram for pancreatic pseudocyst (PPC) in idiopathic chronic pancreatitis (ICP) to facilitate early diagnosis. Methods From January 2000 to December 2013, ICP patients admitted to our center were enrolled. Cumulative incidence of PPC was determined by Kaplan-Meier method. Patients were randomized into training group and validation group in a 2:1 ratio. Risk factors of PPC were determined through Cox proportional hazards regression model based on training cohort. The nomogram was constructed according to risk factors. Results Totally, 1633 ICP patients were included with a median follow-up duration of 9.8 years. Pancreatic pseudocyst was observed in 14.7% (240/1633) of patients after ICP onset. The cumulative incidences of PPC were 8.2%, 10.4%, and 12.9% at 3, 5, and 10 years after ICP onset, respectively. Male sex, smoking history, history of severe acute pancreatitis, and chronic pain at/before diagnosis of ICP and complex pathologic changes in main pancreatic duct were recognized as risk factors of PPC development. The nomogram constructed with these risk factors achieved good concordance indexes. Conclusions Risk for PPC could be estimated through the nomogram. High-risk patients were suggested to be followed up closely to help early diagnosis of PPC.
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影响因子：
--
作者：
M. Barthet;M. Bugallo;Moreira Ls;C. Bastid;B. Sastre;J. Sahel
通讯作者：
M. Barthet;M. Bugallo;Moreira Ls;C. Bastid;B. Sastre;J. Sahel
DOI：
10.1111/j.1440-1746.2004.03426.x
发表时间：
2004-09-01
影响因子：
4.1
作者：
Garg, PK;Tandon, RK
通讯作者：
Tandon, RK
影响因子：
4.5
作者：
Hao, Lu;Zeng, Xiang-Peng;Hu, Liang-Hao
通讯作者：
Hu, Liang-Hao
影响因子：
9.3
作者：
Rösch, T;Daniel, S;Soehendra, N
通讯作者：
Soehendra, N
影响因子：
0.6
作者：
H. Sarles;R. Muratore;J. Sarles;C. Guien;R. Camatte
通讯作者：
H. Sarles;R. Muratore;J. Sarles;C. Guien;R. Camatte