Assessing the influence of sea surface temperature and arctic sea ice cover on the uncertainty in the boreal winter future climate projections
Assessing the influence of sea surface temperature and arctic sea ice cover on the uncertainty in the boreal winter future climate projections
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评估海面温度和北极海冰覆盖对北半球冬季未来气候预测不确定性的影响
DOI：
10.1007/s00382-022-06136-0
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发表时间：
2022-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Wen Zhou
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ho-Nam Cheung;Noel Keenlyside;Torben Koenigk;Shuting Yang;Tian Tian;Zhiqing Xu;Yongqi Gao;Fumiaki Ogawa;Nour-Eddine Omrani;Shaobo Qiao;Wen Zhou
摘要我们研究了不确定性（即，模型间传播）在未来的北方冬季气候预测，根据强迫响应的10个模式从CMIP 5的RCP 8.5情景。在北太平洋、北大西洋和北极地区，海平面气压（SLP）强迫响应的不确定性很大。这些不确定性的一个主要部分（31%）是由一个模式，中心在东北太平洋和偶极子在东北大西洋，我们标记为太平洋-大西洋SLP不确定性模式（PA SLP）。PA-SLP与不同的全球海表温度（SST）和北极海冰覆盖（SIC）扰动模式相关。为了更好地理解PA SST SLP的性质，这些SST和SIC扰动模式在两个大气模式（AGCM）：CAM4和IFS的实验中规定。AGCM的响应表明，SST的不确定性有助于北太平洋SLP的不确定性在CMIP 5模式，通过热带中纬度的相互作用和强迫Rossby波列。CMIP 5模型中的北大西洋SLP不确定性可以通过SST和SIC不确定性的综合影响来更好地解释，部分与来自太平洋的Rossby波列和北大西洋上空的海气相互作用有关。在北方高纬度和大陆区域，CMIP 5和AGCM强迫响应之间的主要差异表明AGCM引起的不确定性。我们分析了这些反应可能的动力学机制，并讨论了这项工作的局限性。
AbstractWe investigate the uncertainty (i.e., inter-model spread) in future projections of the boreal winter climate, based on the forced response of ten models from the CMIP5 following the RCP8.5 scenario. The uncertainty in the forced response of sea level pressure (SLP) is large in the North Pacific, the North Atlantic, and the Arctic. A major part of these uncertainties (31%) is marked by a pattern with a center in the northeastern Pacific and a dipole over the northeastern Atlantic that we label as the Pacific–Atlantic SLP uncertainty pattern (PA∆SLP). The PA∆SLP is associated with distinct global sea surface temperature (SST) and Arctic sea ice cover (SIC) perturbation patterns. To better understand the nature of the PA∆SLP, these SST and SIC perturbation patterns are prescribed in experiments with two atmospheric models (AGCMs): CAM4 and IFS. The AGCM responses suggest that the SST uncertainty contributes to the North Pacific SLP uncertainty in CMIP5 models, through tropical–midlatitude interactions and a forced Rossby wavetrain. The North Atlantic SLP uncertainty in CMIP5 models is better explained by the combined effect of SST and SIC uncertainties, partly related to a Rossby wavetrain from the Pacific and air-sea interaction over the North Atlantic. Major discrepancies between the CMIP5 and AGCM forced responses over northern high-latitudes and continental regions are indicative of uncertainties arising from the AGCMs. We analyze the possible dynamic mechanisms of these responses, and discuss the limitations of this work.
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影响因子：
4.9
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