Developing an early-warning system for air quality prediction and assessment of cities in China
Developing an early-warning system for air quality prediction and assessment of cities in China
复制标题
开发中国城市空气质量预测和评估预警系统
DOI：
10.1016/j.eswa.2017.04.059
复制
发表时间：
2017-10
影响因子：
8.5
通讯作者：
Haiyan Lu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jianzhou Wang;Xiaobo Zhang;Zhenhai Guo;Haiyan Lu
空气质量一直受到环境管理人员和市民的持续关注。因此，空气污染预警系统是非常有用的工具，可以避免对健康造成负面影响，并制定有效的预防计划。然而，开发强大的预警系统是非常具有挑战性的，也是必要的。本文开发了一个由空气质量预测和评价模块组成的可靠、有效的预警系统。在预测模块中，开发了一种混合预测方法来预测污染物浓度，有效地估计了未来的空气质量状况。在开发该模型时，我们建议使用反向传播神经网络算法，结合概率参数模型和数据预处理技术，以解决未来空气质量预测中涉及的不确定性。同时，进行了预分析，主要是利用优化的分布函数对大气污染物的统计特征和排放行为进行了检验和分析。第二种方法是作为第二个模块的一部分开发的，它基于模糊集理论和层次分析过程，执行空气质量评估，以提供对空气质量状况的清晰和易懂的描述。利用环保部中国的数据，以中国、成都和杭州的两个城市为例，分别以良好、中等、轻度污染、中度污染、重度污染和重度污染六个级别的空气质量分级为例，验证了所开发的预警系统的有效性。结果表明，所提出的方法是有效和可靠的，可供环境监督员用于大气污染监测和管理。
Air quality has received continuous attention from both environmental managers and citizens. Accordingly, early-warning systems for air pollution are very useful tools to avoid negative health effects and develop effective prevention programs. However, developing robust early-warning systems is very challenging, as well as necessary. This paper develops a reliable and effective early-warning system that consists of air quality prediction and assessment modules. In the prediction module, a hybrid forecasting method is developed for predicting pollutant concentrations that effectively estimates future air quality conditions. In developing this proposed model, we suggest the use of a back propagation neural network algorithm, combined with a probabilistic parameter model and data preprocessing techniques, to address the uncertainties involved in future air quality prediction. Meanwhile, a pre-analysis is implemented, primarily by using optimized distribution functions to examine and analyze statistical characteristics and emission behaviors of air pollutants. The second method, which is developed as part of the second module, is based on fuzzy set theory and the Analytic Hierarchy Process, and it performs air quality assessments to provide a clear and intelligible description of air quality conditions. Using data from the Ministry of Environmental Protection of China and six stages of air quality classification levels, specificallygood, moderate, lightly polluted, moderately polluted, heavily pollutedandseverely polluted, two cities in China, Chengdu and Hangzhou, are used as illustrative examples to verify the effectiveness of the developed early-warning system. The results demonstrate that the proposed methods are effective and reliable for use by environmental supervisors in air pollution monitoring and management.
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影响因子：
7
作者：
K. F. Liu;H. Liang;K. Yeh;C. W. Chen
通讯作者：
K. F. Liu;H. Liang;K. Yeh;C. W. Chen
DOI：
--
发表时间：
--
期刊：
--
影响因子：
--
作者：
Gökay Akkaya;Betül Turano;Sinan Özta¸s
通讯作者：
Gökay Akkaya;Betül Turano;Sinan Özta¸s
影响因子：
--
作者：
T. Saaty
通讯作者：
T. Saaty
影响因子：
5
作者：
O. Taylan
通讯作者：
O. Taylan
DOI：
10.1002/0470011815.b2a4a002
发表时间：
2005-07
期刊：
--
影响因子：
--
作者：
T. Saaty
通讯作者：
T. Saaty