Exploring Future Water Shortage for Large River Basins under Different Water Allocation Strategies
Exploring Future Water Shortage for Large River Basins under Different Water Allocation Strategies
复制标题
不同水量配置策略下大流域未来水资源短缺的探索
DOI：
10.1007/s11269-018-1975-8
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发表时间：
2018-04
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Saskia E. Werners
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Dan Yan;Mingtian Yao;Fulco Ludwig;Pavel Kabat;He Qing Huang;RonaldW. A. Hutjes;Saskia E. Werners
气候变化和社会经济发展增加了中国珠江流域（PRB）水资源可利用和用水的变化。这可能会导致用水者之间的水资源冲突，并导致旱季缺水。为了评估和管理PRB的水资源短缺，我们首先探讨了两种水资源可用性和三种水资源利用方案。接下来，确定了四种不同的水资源分配策略。这些水资源分配策略分别优先考虑上游用水、珠江三角洲用水、灌溉用水和制造用水。在不同的水供应和水使用情景下，评估了四项战略对水使用和相关经济产出的影响。结果表明，在四种策略下，几乎所有的区域都可能面临水资源短缺。对水资源需求的增加对水资源短缺的贡献是可用水量减少的两倍。所有四种水资源分配策略都不足以解决PRB的水资源短缺问题。四种配水策略下的经济损失差异很大。优先考虑三角洲地区或制造业生产将导致较低的经济损失比其他两个战略。然而，所有这些都是相当极端的策略。制定水资源管理战略需要在不同的用水者之间达成妥协。
Climate change and socio-economic development increase variations in water availability and water use in the Pearl River Basin (PRB), China. This can potentially result in conflicts over water resources between water users, and cause water shortage in the dry season. To assess and manage water shortage in the PRB, we first explored two water availability and three water use scenarios. Next, four different strategies to allocate water were defined. These water allocation strategies prioritized upstream water use, Pearl River Delta water use, irrigation water use, and manufacturing water use, respectively. The impact of the four strategies on water use and related economic output was assessed under different water availability and water use scenarios. Results show that almost all the regions in the PRB are likely to face water shortage under the four strategies. The increasing water demand contributes twice as much as the decreasing water availability to water shortage. All four water allocation strategies are insufficient to solve the water scarcity in the PRB. The economic losses differ greatly under the four water allocation strategies. Prioritizing the delta region or manufacturing production would result in lower economic losses than the other two strategies. However, all of them are rather extreme strategies. Development of water resources management strategies requires a compromise between different water users.
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影响因子：
2.9
作者：
Huicong Jia;Donghua Pan;Wanchang Zhang
通讯作者：
Wanchang Zhang
影响因子：
5
作者：
Abbas, Sawaid;Nichol, Janet E.;Xu, Jianchu
通讯作者：
Xu, Jianchu
影响因子：
4.8
作者：
van Vuuren, Detlef P.;Edmonds, Jae;Rose, Steven K.
通讯作者：
Rose, Steven K.
DOI：
10.1142/s021819400800374x
发表时间：
2008-06
期刊：
Int. J. Softw. Eng. Knowl. Eng.
影响因子：
--
作者：
Zhifeng Yang;Yong Zeng;Y. Cai;Q. Tan
通讯作者：
Zhifeng Yang;Yong Zeng;Y. Cai;Q. Tan
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Jiajin Wang;Y. Meng
通讯作者：
Jiajin Wang;Y. Meng