Should Sea-Ice Modeling Tools Designed for Climate Research Be Used for Short-Term Forecasting?
Should Sea-Ice Modeling Tools Designed for Climate Research Be Used for Short-Term Forecasting?
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DOI：
10.1007/s40641-020-00162-y
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发表时间：
2020
影响因子：
9.5
通讯作者：
Zhang J
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hunke E;Allard R;Blain P;Blockley E;Feltham D;Fichefet T;Garric G;Grumbine R;Lemieux JF;Rasmussen T;Ribergaard M;Roberts A;Schweiger A;Tietsche S;Tremblay B;Vancoppenolle M;Zhang J
从理论上讲，相同的海冰模型可以用于研究和操作，但实际上，科学和软件需求以及计算和人力资源的差异使此事变得复杂。尽管为气候研究和其他研究应用开发的Sea-Ice建模工具为操作预测用户（例如冰运动，收敛和内部冰压力）提供了感兴趣的输出，但相关的空间和时间尺度可能无法充分解决。例如，Sea-Ice研究代码通常以3公里以上的水平分辨率运行，而水手则需要小于300 m的尺度上的信息。对于模拟地球系统至关重要的某些海冰过程和耦合反馈可能与这些尺度无关。因此，可以在耦合模型的大气和海洋组件或其耦合机制中，而不是在Sea-Ice模型本身中进行大气和海洋组成部分，而不是在Sea-Ice模型本身中进行改善海冰预测的最重要模型。本文讨论了用于应用于研究目的开发的Sea-Ice建模工具的一些挑战，用于在短时间内进行操作预测，并突出了有希望的Sea-Ice建模方向的新方向。
In theory, the same sea-ice models could be used for both research and operations, but in practice, differences in scientific and software requirements and computational and human resources complicate the matter. Although sea-ice modeling tools developed for climate studies and other research applications produce output of interest to operational forecast users, such as ice motion, convergence, and internal ice pressure, the relevant spatial and temporal scales may not be sufficiently resolved. For instance, sea-ice research codes are typically run with horizontal resolution of more than 3 km, while mariners need information on scales less than 300 m. Certain sea-ice processes and coupled feedbacks that are critical to simulating the Earth system may not be relevant on these scales; and therefore, the most important model upgrades for improving sea-ice predictions might be made in the atmosphere and ocean components of coupled models or in their coupling mechanisms, rather than in the sea-ice model itself. This paper discusses some of the challenges in applying sea-ice modeling tools developed for research purposes for operational forecasting on short time scales, and highlights promising new directions in sea-ice modeling.
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影响因子：
3.2
作者：
Campin, Jean-Michel;Hill, Chris;Marshall, John
通讯作者：
Marshall, John
影响因子：
5.1
作者：
Blockley, E. W.;Martin, M. J.;Storkey, D.
通讯作者：
Storkey, D.
影响因子：
5.2
作者：
Day, J. J.;Hawkins, E.;Tietsche, S.
通讯作者：
Tietsche, S.
影响因子：
3.2
作者：
Bengtsson, Lisa;Andrae, Ulf;Koltzow, Morten Odegaard
通讯作者：
Koltzow, Morten Odegaard
影响因子：
--
作者：
CAMPBELL, WJ
通讯作者：
CAMPBELL, WJ