Time to leave: an analysis of travel times during the approach and landfall of Hurricane Irma

Time to leave: an analysis of travel times during the approach and landfall of Hurricane Irma
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出发时间:飓风艾尔玛逼近和登陆期间的出行时间分析

DOI:
10.1007/s11069-020-04093-7
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发表时间:
2020
期刊:
影响因子:
3.7
通讯作者:
Logan, Tom
Logan, Tom
中科院分区:
工程技术3区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Marasco, David;Murray-Tuite, Pamela;Guikema, Seth;Logan, Tom

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2017 年 9 月,飓风“艾尔玛”在佛罗里达州及其部分邻近州引发了广泛的疏散活动。研究人员通过 Google Distance Matrix API 收集了大约一个月的预计出行时间,以识别和分析这段时间内佛罗里达州、佐治亚州和南卡罗来纳州道路上的疏散时间。行程时间数据经过数学调整,以显示更实际的估计。然后将两组旅行时间绘制成图表,假设飓风登陆之前和期间旅行时间增加表明疏散活动。该研究总体上证实了既定的白天疏散偏好。然而,并非所有疏散时段都遵循白天出行偏好,至少一次夜间疏散可能是由洪水造成的。在另一种情况下,后来的升高行程同时发生了严重的电力损失。最后,佛罗里达州的数据表明,大部分疏散车辆在当地司法管辖区建议的疏散开始时间之前出发。
Hurricane Irma caused widespread evacuation activity across Florida and some of its neighboring states in September of 2017. The researchers gathered estimated travel times from the Google Distance Matrix API over about a month to identify and analyze evacuation periods on roads in Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina during this time. Travel time data were mathematically adjusted to show more realistic estimations. Both sets of travel times were then graphed, with the assumption that elevated travel times prior to and during hurricane landfall were indicative of evacuation activity. The study generally corroborated the well-established daytime evacuation preference. However, not all evacuation periods followed the daytime travel preference, and at least one nighttime evacuation may have been caused by flooding. In another case, later elevated travel coincided with significant power loss. Finally, the Florida data suggest that most of the evacuation traffic departed before local jurisdictions’ recommended evacuation start times.
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