People's Risk Recognition Preceding Evacuation and Its Role in Demand Modeling and Planning
People's Risk Recognition Preceding Evacuation and Its Role in Demand Modeling and Planning
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疏散前人员的风险识别及其在需求建模和规划中的作用
DOI：
10.1111/risa.12931
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发表时间：
2017
期刊：
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
Pel Adam J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Urata Junji;Pel Adam J.
疏散规划和管理涉及估计需要采取此类行动时的出行需求。这通常是根据人们的疏散决定来完成的，我们表明这与他们的风险意识密切相关。我们使用显示海啸疏散行为的实证数据集来证明风险识别并不等同于客观风险，而是由风险教育、信息和社会人口统计等因素的组合决定，并且随着时间的推移而动态变化。基于这些发现，我们制定了一个有序 Logit 模型来描述风险识别，并结合潜在类别模型来描述疏散选择。我们提出的疏散选择模型以及风险识别类别可以定量评估减灾措施、风险教育和风险信息的影响。风险识别模型的结果表明，风险信息对于人们认识到自己的高风险具有更大的影响。疏散选择模型的结果表明，不了解自身风险的人们需要更长的时间来疏散。
Evacuation planning and management involves estimating the travel demand in the event that such action is required. This is usually done as a function of people's decision to evacuate, which we show is strongly linked to their risk awareness. We use an empirical data set, which shows tsunami evacuation behavior, to demonstrate that risk recognition is not synonymous with objective risk, but is instead determined by a combination of factors including risk education, information, and sociodemographics, and that it changes dynamically over time. Based on these findings, we formulate an ordered logit model to describe risk recognition combined with a latent class model to describe evacuation choices. Our proposed evacuation choice model along with a risk recognition class can evaluate quantitatively the influence of disaster mitigation measures, risk education, and risk information. The results obtained from the risk recognition model show that risk information has a greater impact in the sense that people recognize their high risk. The results of the evacuation choice model show that people who are unaware of their risk take a longer time to evacuate.
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