Method Uncertainty Is Essential for Reliable Confidence Statements of Precipitation Projections
Method Uncertainty Is Essential for Reliable Confidence Statements of Precipitation Projections
复制标题
方法不确定性对于降水预测的可靠置信度陈述至关重要
DOI：
10.1175/jcli-d-20-0289.1
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发表时间：
2020
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
H. Shiogama
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
P. Uhe;D. Mitchell;P. Bates;M. Allen;R. Betts;C. Huntingford;A. King;B. Sanderson;H. Shiogama
降水事件在世界各地造成破坏，并将因气候变化而改变。然而，不同的气候模拟方法可能导致不同的未来降水预测。相应的“方法不确定性”在气候影响研究和主要报告中很少明确计算，但可以大大改变估计的降水变化。五个常用的模拟活动的比较表明，对于平均降水量的变化，分析的区域中只有不到一半的区域在当前气候和1.5°C全球变暖之间发生了显着变化。这增加到目前气候与2°C全球变暖之间变化的地区的一半以上。最大1天降水量的变化比平均降水量的变化有更高的置信度，表明热力学对极端气候变化的影响具有强大的影响。我们还发现，没有一个建模活动能够捕捉到所有地区其他方法的全部估计值。我们的结果作为一个不确定性地图，以帮助解释哪些地区需要一个多方法的方法。我们的分析强调了过度依赖任何单一建模活动的风险，以及在主要合成报告中需要置信度声明来反映这种方法的不确定性。考虑气候预测的多种来源应减少决策者对气候变暖的影响没有准备的风险，而不是使用单一方法预测来做出决策。
Precipitation events cause disruption around the world and will be altered by climate change. However, different climate modeling approaches can result in different future precipitation projections. The corresponding “method uncertainty” is rarely explicitly calculated in climate impact studies and major reports but can substantially change estimated precipitation changes. A comparison across five commonly used modeling activities shows that, for changes in mean precipitation, less than half of the regions analyzed had significant changes between the present climate and 1.5°C global warming for the majority of modeling activities. This increases to just over half of the regions for changes between present climate and 2°C global warming. There is much higher confidence in changes in maximum 1-day precipitation than in mean precipitation, indicating the robust influence of thermodynamics in the climate change effect on extremes. We also find that none of the modeling activities captures the full range of estimates from the other methods in all regions. Our results serve as an uncertainty map to help interpret which regions require a multimethod approach. Our analysis highlights the risk of overreliance on any single modeling activity and the need for confidence statements in major synthesis reports to reflect this method uncertainty. Considering multiple sources of climate projections should reduce the risks of policymakers being unprepared for impacts of warmer climates relative to using single-method projections to make decisions.
DOI：
10.1016/0197-2456(86)90046-2
发表时间：
1986-09-01
期刊：
CONTROLLED CLINICAL TRIALS
影响因子：
--
作者：
DERSIMONIAN, R;LAIRD, N
通讯作者：
LAIRD, N
气候模式集合结构多样性的可靠性和重要性
影响因子：
4.6
作者：
Yokohata T
通讯作者：
Yokohata T
影响因子：
30.7
作者：
Deser, C.;Lehner, F.;Ting, M.
通讯作者：
Ting, M.