Climate change sensitivity index for Pacific salmon habitat in southeast Alaska.
Climate change sensitivity index for Pacific salmon habitat in southeast Alaska.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0104799
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发表时间：
2014
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Albert DM
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Shanley CS;Albert DM
全球气候变化可能成为21世纪阿拉斯加东南部太平洋鲑鱼保护和管理面临的最紧迫挑战之一。预测的与气候变化相关的水文变化可能会挑战特定种群适应新的流动制度的能力，以及由此导致的产卵和饲养生境的变化。目前的研究表明，卵到鱼苗的存活可能是太平洋鲑鱼北部活动范围内最重要的淡水限制因素之一，因为据预测，洪水事件会更频繁地冲刷移动产卵底物上的卵。开发了流域尺度的水文气候敏感性指数，将这一假设与历史流量站数据集和基于多元回归的月流量模型进行了映射。利用集合全球气候模式平均值(ECHAM5、HadCM3和CGCM3.1)以及预计到2080年的三种全球温室气体排放情景(B1、A1B和A2)，量化了产卵和孵化期(9月至3月)从当前到未来分水岭条件的相对变化。模型显示，该地区不同的地形和气候导致了相对可预测的变化模式：北部大陆和更陡峭的积雪山区流域表现出最大的流量增长，较早的春季融化，并过渡到雨水供应的水文模式。在产卵期和孵化期，所有流域的预计径流增长从大约1倍到3倍不等，春季和秋季的高峰流量增加。然后，将水文气候敏感性指数与目前绘制的鲑鱼栖息地和物种多样性指数结合起来，制定了研究和养护优先事项矩阵，突出了可能易受有韧性的高价值流域的影响。由此产生的矩阵和观察到的趋势被作为一个框架提出，以确定长期监测计划、缓解试验以及更小规模的气候影响和适应研究的优先顺序。
Global climate change may become one of the most pressing challenges to Pacific Salmon conservation and management for southeast Alaska in the 21st Century. Predicted hydrologic change associated with climate change will likely challenge the ability of specific stocks to adapt to new flow regimes and resulting shifts in spawning and rearing habitats. Current research suggests egg-to-fry survival may be one of the most important freshwater limiting factors in Pacific Salmon's northern range due to more frequent flooding events predicted to scour eggs from mobile spawning substrates. A watershed-scale hydroclimatic sensitivity index was developed to map this hypothesis with an historical stream gauge station dataset and monthly multiple regression-based discharge models. The relative change from present to future watershed conditions predicted for the spawning and incubation period (September to March) was quantified using an ensemble global climate model average (ECHAM5, HadCM3, and CGCM3.1) and three global greenhouse gas emission scenarios (B1, A1B, and A2) projected to the year 2080. The models showed the region's diverse physiography and climatology resulted in a relatively predictable pattern of change: northern mainland and steeper, snow-fed mountainous watersheds exhibited the greatest increases in discharge, an earlier spring melt, and a transition into rain-fed hydrologic patterns. Predicted streamflow increases for all watersheds ranged from approximately 1-fold to 3-fold for the spawning and incubation period, with increased peak flows in the spring and fall. The hydroclimatic sensitivity index was then combined with an index of currently mapped salmon habitat and species diversity to develop a research and conservation priority matrix, highlighting potentially vulnerable to resilient high-value watersheds. The resulting matrix and observed trends are put forth as a framework to prioritize long-term monitoring plans, mitigation experiments, and finer-scale climate impact and adaptation studies.
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