Firm Exit during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from Japan.
Firm Exit during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from Japan.
复制标题
新冠肺炎大流行期间的坚定退出：来自日本的证据。
DOI：
10.1016/j.jjie.2020.101118
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发表时间：
2021-03
影响因子：
2.9
通讯作者：
Ueda, Kozo
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Miyakawa, Daisuke;Oikawa, Koki;Ueda, Kozo
自COVID-19疫情开始以来，公司已退出市场。为了评估退出市场的企业数量和退出率，我们构建了一个简单的模型，在这个模型中，企业最优地选择退出的停止时间。我们使用公司层面的数据对模型进行了估计，这些数据是关于疫情爆发前公司退出的。随后，我们使用最近关于企业销售增长的调查数据，在以破产程序和政府救助计划等活动为代表的制度背景不改变退出期权价值的情况下，模拟了疫情期间企业的潜在退出。我们的主要发现如下。首先，我们发现相当大的异质性，在不同行业和地区的公司退出的数量和速度。其次，总体而言，假设近期公司销售额的下降是暂时的，因此部分纳入了公司对未来趋势销售增长的预期，则疫情可能使公司退出数量较去年增加约。在两个极端的情况下，最近的销售减少有一个完整的或没有影响企业的预期，未来的销售，企业退出分别增加和。第三，这些增长主要是由于预期销售增长率的下降，而不是不确定性的增加。最后，为了防止潜在企业退出的过度增加，我们对政府补贴的假设金额进行了量化，该金额约为日本GDP的1/3。
Firms have exited the market since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. To evaluate the number of firms exiting the market and their exit rate, we construct a simple model, in which firms optimally choose stopping time for their exit. We estimate the model using firm-level data on firm exits before the pandemic. Subsequently, using recent survey data on firm sales growth, we simulate potential firm exits during the pandemic under the condition that the institutional background, represented by activities such as bankruptcy procedures and government rescue plans, did not change the exit option value. Our main findings are as follows. First, we find sizable heterogeneity with respect to the number and rate of firm exits across industries and regions. Second, in aggregate, the pandemic potentially increased firm exits by around compared to the previous year under the assumption that the recent reduction in firm sales is temporary and, thus, partially incorporated into firms’ expectations for future trend sales growth. In two extreme cases in which the recent sales reduction has a full or no impact on firms’ expectations for future sales, firm exits increased by and respectively. Third, these increases are mainly due to the decrease in the expected sales growth rate, rather than the increase in uncertainty. Finally, we quantify the hypothetical amount of government subsidies needed to prevent excess increases in potential firm exits, which is around of Japan’s GDP.
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