Modes of climate mobility under sea-level rise
Modes of climate mobility under sea-level rise
复制标题
海平面上升下的气候流动模式
DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/acfe22
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发表时间：
2023
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Mach, Katharine J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Seeteram, Nadia A.;Ash, Kevin;Sanders, Brett F.;Schubert, Jochen E.;Mach, Katharine J.
海平面上升和洪水将使一些地区无法居住，对安全地区住房需求的增加可能会因经济压力而导致流离失所。预测SLR的这种直接和间接影响对于公平的适应政策非常重要。在此，我们以洪水暴露建模和社会脆弱性评估的最新进展为基础，展示了一个评估单反对流动性直接和间接影响的框架。利用脆弱性和暴露度两个空间分布指标，分析了四种特定的气候流动模式：(1)最小单反暴露（稳定），(2)直接暴露于单反并有迁移能力（迁移），(3)通过经济压力间接暴露于单反（流离失所），(4)直接暴露于单反而无迁移能力（困住）。我们在美国迈阿密-戴德县（Miami-Dade County， USA）探索这些动态，这是一个社会不平等和单反曝光严重的大都市地区。利用人口普查区尺度上的13个社会指标，通过聚类分析对社会脆弱性进行了估计。利用1.5 m分辨率的复合洪水灾害模型估算了SLR增加下的暴露，该模型考虑了涨潮和地下水上升造成的淹没以及极端降水和风暴潮造成的洪水。社会脆弱性和暴露在住宅建筑的尺度上相交，暴露人口通过非对称方法估计。在100万SLR下，低洪水风险地区56%的居民可能会流离失所，而26%的人口有被困（19%）或从高洪水风险地区迁移（7%）的风险，至少有9个城市的人口减少和财政压力增加，其中50%或更多的人口暴露在洪水中。随着SLR从1 m增加到2 m，主要的洪水驱动因素从降水转向淹没，暴露于淹没的人口从2.8%上升到54.7%。了解洪水风险的地理变化和不同气候流动模式的潜力，可以实现从家庭到区域的适应规划。
Exposure to sea-level rise (SLR) and flooding will make some areas uninhabitable, and the increased demand for housing in safer areas may cause displacement through economic pressures. Anticipating such direct and indirect impacts of SLR is important for equitable adaptation policies. Here we build upon recent advances in flood exposure modeling and social vulnerability assessment to demonstrate a framework for estimating the direct and indirect impacts of SLR on mobility. Using two spatially distributed indicators of vulnerability and exposure, four specific modes of climate mobility are characterized:(1) minimally exposed to SLR (Stable),(2) directly exposed to SLR with capacity to relocate (Migrating),(3) indirectly exposed to SLR through economic pressures (Displaced), and (4) directly exposed to SLR without capacity to relocate (Trapped). We explore these dynamics within Miami-Dade County, USA, a metropolitan region with substantial social inequality and SLR exposure. Social vulnerability is estimated by cluster analysis using 13 social indicators at the census tract scale. Exposure is estimated under increasing SLR using a 1.5 m resolution compound flood hazard model accounting for inundation from high tides and rising groundwater and flooding from extreme precipitation and storm surge. Social vulnerability and exposure are intersected at the scale of residential buildings where exposed population is estimated by dasymetric methods. Under 1 m SLR, 56% of residents in areas of low flood hazard may experience displacement, whereas 26% of the population risks being trapped (19%) in or migrating (7%) from areas of high flood hazard, and concerns of depopulation and fiscal stress increase within at least 9 municipalities where 50% or more of their total population is exposed to flooding. As SLR increases from 1 to 2 m, the dominant flood driver shifts from precipitation to inundation, with population exposed to inundation rising from 2.8% to 54.7%. Understanding shifting geographies of flood risks and the potential for different modes of climate mobility can enable adaptation planning across household-to-regional scales.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ijdrr.2015.09.013
发表时间：
2015-12-01
影响因子：
5
作者：
Rufat, Samuel;Tate, Eric;Maroof, Abu Sayeed
通讯作者：
Maroof, Abu Sayeed
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DOI：
10.1080/00045608.2012.702485
发表时间：
2013
期刊：
Annals of the Association of American Geographers
影响因子：
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作者：
S. Rufat
通讯作者：
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影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Chongming Wang;Brent Yarnal
通讯作者：
Brent Yarnal
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DOI：
--
发表时间：
2014
期刊：
影响因子：
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作者：
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影响因子：
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作者：
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通讯作者：
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