South African child deaths 1990-2011: have HIV services reversed the trend enough to meet Millennium Development Goal 4?
South African child deaths 1990-2011: have HIV services reversed the trend enough to meet Millennium Development Goal 4?
复制标题
DOI：
10.1097/01.aids.0000432987.53271.40
复制
发表时间：
2013-10-23
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Jackson D
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kerber KJ;Lawn JE;Johnson LF;Mahy M;Dorrington RE;Phillips H;Bradshaw D;Nannan N;Msemburi W;Oestergaard MZ;Walker NP;Sanders D;Jackson D
分析南非五岁以下儿童死亡率的趋势（1990-2011年），特别是艾滋病造成的死亡。系统地审查了三种全国使用的估计儿童艾滋病死亡的模型。将模型产出与两个全球估计模型对南非五岁以下儿童死亡率的估计进行了比较。所有的估计都与现有的经验数据进行了比较。模型之间的差异导致五岁以下儿童死亡率的估计值不同，但趋势是相似的，死亡率在2005年左右达到峰值。显示艾滋病贡献的三个模型表明，2004-2005年期间，儿童死亡中37-39%是由艾滋病造成的，此后有所下降。虽然1990年以来的进展速度没有达到实现关于儿童生存的千年发展目标4所需的4.4%，但2006年至2011年期间，南非五岁以下儿童死亡率的年平均下降率在6.3%至10.2%之间。2005年，南非是全球五岁以下儿童死亡率高于1990年千年发展目标基线的四个国家之一。在过去五年中，我国在降低儿童死亡率方面的成就仅超过其他三个国家。这种迅速好转可能是由于扩大了预防艾滋病毒母婴传播的工作，以及在较小程度上扩大了抗逆转录病毒治疗的推广。必须继续强调这些规划，但如果不能解决护理的其他方面问题，包括综合高质量孕产妇和新生儿护理，就意味着儿童死亡率的下降可能会停滞。
To analyse trends in under-five mortality rate in South Africa (1990–2011), particularly the contribution of AIDS deaths. Three nationally used models for estimating AIDS deaths in children were systematically reviewed. The model outputs were compared with under-five mortality rate estimates for South Africa from two global estimation models. All estimates were compared with available empirical data. Differences between the models resulted in varying point estimates for under-five mortality but the trends were similar, with mortality increasing to a peak around 2005. The three models showing the contribution of AIDS suggest a maximum of 37–39% of child deaths were due to AIDS in 2004–2005 which has since declined. Although the rate of progress from 1990 is not the 4.4% needed to meet Millennium Development Goal 4 for child survival, South Africa's average annual rate of under-five mortality decline between 2006 and 2011 was between 6.3 and 10.2%. In 2005, South Africa was one of only four countries globally with an under-five mortality rate higher than the 1990 Millennium Development Goal baseline. Over the past 5 years, the country has achieved a rate of child mortality reduction exceeded by only three other countries. This rapid turnaround is likely due to scale-up of prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV, and to a lesser degree, the expanded roll-out of antiretroviral therapy. Emphasis on these programmes must continue, but failure to address other aspects of care including integrated high-quality maternal and neonatal care means that the decline in child mortality could stall.
登录
查看更多内容
影响因子：
168.9
作者：
Bryce, Jennifer;Daelmans, Bernadette;Wardlaw, Tessa
通讯作者：
Wardlaw, Tessa
影响因子：
168.9
作者：
Liu, Li;Johnson, Hope L.;Black, Robert E.
通讯作者：
Black, Robert E.
影响因子：
2.2
作者：
Lallemant, Camille;Halembokaka, Gaston;Le Coeur, Sophie
通讯作者：
Le Coeur, Sophie
影响因子：
3.8
作者：
Bourne, David E.;Thompson, MaryLou;Myers, Jonny E.
通讯作者：
Myers, Jonny E.
DOI：
10.2471/blt.11.086280
发表时间：
2011-04-01
期刊：
Bulletin of the World Health Organization: International Journal of Public Health
影响因子：
--
作者：
Birnbaum, Jeanette Kurian;Murray, Christopher JL;Lozano, Rafael
通讯作者：
Lozano, Rafael