On the usefulness of the bioclimatic correlative models of SARS-CoV-2.
On the usefulness of the bioclimatic correlative models of SARS-CoV-2.
复制标题
关于SARS-COV-2的生物气候相关模型的有用性。
DOI：
10.1016/j.envres.2021.110818
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发表时间：
2021-04
影响因子：
8.3
通讯作者：
García LV
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gutiérrez-Hernández O;García LV
本文讨论了大气条件对SARS-CoV-2冠状病毒及其相关疾病COVID-19传播的影响。为此，我们评估了生物气候相关模型的局限性，以解释SARS-CoV-2在医学地理学背景下的地理分布。总体而言，人们普遍认为COVID-19的全球分布并非随机，而是受环境因素的影响。然而，随着COVID-19的分布变得全球化，包括热带气候，有证据表明，大气条件最多只能解释SARS-CoV-2的有限时空动态。因此，基于生物气候包络的方法的有效性受到质疑，因为COVID-19传播的主要途径似乎是生物圈的非静止环境。从这个意义上说，有必要进一步澄清不同的传播途径在多个尺度和室外和室内环境超出生物气候信封的作用。此时，天气对COVID-19传播的可能影响不足以在公共卫生政策中考虑。因此，在发现SARS-CoV-2的可靠生物气候包络之前，在报告时应谨慎行事，因为这可能会产生不可预见的后果。
This paper addresses the effects of atmospheric conditions on the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus and its associated disease, COVID-19. For this purpose, we assess the limitations of bioclimatic correlative models to explain the geographic distribution of SARS-CoV-2 in the context of medical geography. Overall, there is a broad consensus that the global distribution of COVID-19 is not random but conditioned by environmental drivers. However, as the COVID-19 distribution becomes global, including tropical climates, the evidence reveals that atmospheric conditions explain, at most, only a limited amount of the space-time dynamics of SARS-CoV-2. Therefore, the usefulness of approaches based on bioclimatic envelopes is in question since the dominant route for the spread of COVID-19 seems to be the anthroposphere's non-stationary environment. In this sense, there is a need to clarify further the role of different transmission routes at multiple scales and outdoor and indoor environments beyond bioclimatic envelopes. At this time, the possible influence of the weather in COVID-19 spread is not sufficient to be taken into account in public health policies. Hence, until reliable bioclimatic envelopes of SARS-CoV-2, if any, are found, caution should be exercised when reporting, as this could have unforeseen consequences.
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