An index to quantify environmental risk of exposure to future epidemics of the COVID-19 and similar viral agents: Theory and practice.
An index to quantify environmental risk of exposure to future epidemics of the COVID-19 and similar viral agents: Theory and practice.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.envres.2020.110155
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发表时间：
2020-12
影响因子：
8.3
通讯作者：
Coccia M
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Coccia M
在新型冠状病毒病（COVID-19）和其他新型病毒病原体存在的情况下，科学的基本问题之一是评估城市/地区对传染病暴露的环境和社会弱点，以预防和/或遏制新的COVID-19疫情以及对国家公共卫生和经济产生负面影响的其他病毒病原体的扩散。目前对传染病传播动态的监测主要基于繁殖数（R0）和致死率。然而，这种方法是实时监测传播动态，以减少与COVID-19相关的感染人数和死亡人数。繁殖数不能提供应付未来流行病或大流行病的资料。本研究的主要目标是提出指数c（作为传染病），量化城市/地区暴露于未来COVID-19流行病和类似重要病原体的环境风险。该指数综合了城市/地区的环境、人口、气候和健康风险因素，表明其暴露于传染病。指数c的范围从1（城市地区环境和社会薄弱，导致传染病暴露程度高）到0（环境降低了社会中接触传染病的风险）。在意大利的案例研究中应用的统计证据似乎总体上支持指数c的预测能力，它是一种特别简单但优越的指标，可以检测城市/地区暴露于传染病的潜在风险与受感染个体的实际风险与COVID-19死亡之间的全球相关性。指数c可以支持积极主动的环境战略，帮助决策者预防未来类似COVID-19的大流行。
In the presence of the novel Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) and other new viral agents, one of the fundamental problems in science is the evaluation of environmental and social weaknesses of cities/regions to the exposure of infectious diseases for preventing and/or containing new COVID-19 outbreaks and the diffusion of other viral agents that generate a negative impact on public health and economy of countries. The current monitoring of transmission dynamics of infectious diseases is mainly based on reproduction number (R0) and fatality rates. However, this approach is a real-time monitoring of transmission dynamics for mitigating the numbers of COVID-19 related infected individuals and deaths. Reproduction number does not provide information to cope with future epidemics or pandemics. The main goal of this study is to propose the Index c (as contagions) that quantifies, ex-ante, the environmental risk of exposure of cities/regions to future epidemics of the COVID-19 and similar vital agents. This Index c synthetizes environmental, demographic, climatological and health risk factors of cities/regions that indicate their exposure to infectious diseases. Index c has a range from 1 (environmental and social weakness of urban areas leading to high levels of exposure to infectious diseases) to 0 (environment that reduces the risk of exposure to infectious diseases in society). The statistical evidence here, applied on case study of Italy, seems in general to support the predictive capacity of the Index c as a particularly simple but superior indicator in detecting the global correlation between potential risk of exposure of cities/regions to infectious diseases and actual risk given by infected individuals and deaths of the COVID-19. The Index c can support a proactive environmental strategy to help policymakers to prevent future pandemics similar to the COVID-19.
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