Targeting vaccination against novel infections: risk, age and spatial structure for pandemic influenza in Great Britain.
Targeting vaccination against novel infections: risk, age and spatial structure for pandemic influenza in Great Britain.
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DOI：
10.1098/rsif.2010.0474
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发表时间：
2011-05-06
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
White PJ
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Keeling MJ;White PJ
H1N1在2009年在墨西哥及其随后在全球范围内传播的新型H1N1病毒的菌株的出现集中在这里，我们在这里使用三个相对简单的模型来解决最佳的大规模疫苗活动。在任何疫苗的靶向中。参数的不确定性可以在爆发的早期阶段进行评估，我们检查针对风险组，年龄组或空间区域是否可以在减少预测的案件数量或严重影响方面是最佳的这些目标策略如何随着流行病的发展而变化。使用年龄结构化混合物的严重影响，我们表明靶向更重要的年龄组（5-14岁，然后是15-24岁）导致流行病的降低，因此降低案件的总数。可以部署疫苗的速度以及疫苗计划的开始。
The emergence of a novel strain of H1N1 influenza virus in Mexico in 2009, and its subsequent worldwide spread, has focused attention to the question of optimal deployment of mass vaccination campaigns. Here, we use three relatively simple models to address three issues of primary concern in the targeting of any vaccine. The advantages of such simple models are that the underlying assumptions and effects of individual parameters are relatively clear, and the impact of uncertainty in the parametrization can be readily assessed in the early stages of an outbreak. In particular, we examine whether targeting risk-groups, age-groups or spatial regions could be optimal in terms of reducing the predicted number of cases or severe effects; and how these targeted strategies vary as the epidemic progresses. We examine the conditions under which it is optimal to initially target vaccination towards those individuals within the population who are most at risk of severe effects of infection. Using age-structured mixing matrices, we show that targeting vaccination towards the more epidemiologically important age groups (5–14 year olds and then 15–24 year olds) leads to the greatest reduction in the epidemic growth and hence reduces the total number of cases. Finally, we consider how spatially targeting the vaccine towards regions of country worst affected could provide an advantage. We discuss how all three of these priorities change as both the speed at which vaccination can be deployed and the start of the vaccination programme is varied.
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影响因子：
3.9
作者：
Goldstein, E.;Apolloni, A.;Wallinga, J.
通讯作者：
Wallinga, J.
DOI：
10.1098/rspb.2007.0893
发表时间：
2007-11-22
影响因子：
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影响因子：
105.7
作者：
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通讯作者：
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.0908491107
发表时间：
2010-01-12
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Wallinga, Jacco;van Boven, Michiel;Lipsitch, Marc
通讯作者：
Lipsitch, Marc
影响因子：
4.2
作者：
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通讯作者：
Leach, S.