The overconfident and ambiguity-averse newsvendor problem in perishable product decision
The overconfident and ambiguity-averse newsvendor problem in perishable product decision
复制标题
易腐产品决策中的过度自信和厌恶模糊性报童问题
DOI：
10.1016/j.cie.2020.106689
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发表时间：
2020-10
影响因子：
7.9
通讯作者：
Chen Feng
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Wu Dasheng;Chen Feng
在易腐产品的决策中，报童可能会过度自信，因为他们对未来的结果有更精确的估计，他们可能会模棱两可，因为只有部分的需求分布的知识是可用的。本文研究了一个报童在模糊厌恶时的过度自信行为偏差。通过减少需求分布的方差，但保持均值与线性函数，我们制定了一个理论上的最大-最小优化模型，占过度自信和模糊厌恶的影响报童的决定。最优订货量的封闭形式的解决方案是通过最大化的期望利润对最坏的分布。据此，本文得出了一些结论。首先，最优订货量是过度自信水平的线性函数，在高利润情况下，最优订货量随过度自信水平的增加而减少，在低利润情况下，最优订货量随过度自信水平的增加而增加。第二，过度自信的报童认为他们更精确，因此比没有偏见的人获得更多的利润。然而，过度自信实际上可能会提高订单偏差，并且预期成本在过度自信水平上增加。第三，过度自信有助于缓解模糊厌恶优化的保守性，即使需求分布存在一些错误，鲁棒策略也能表现得更好。此外，我们提供了实验支持的理论关系。所得到的封闭解易于处理，对实际应用具有重要意义。
In the decision-making of perishable product, newsvendors may be overconfident as they have a more precise estimate about future outcomes, and they may be ambiguity-averse as only partial knowledge of the demand distribution is available. This paper investigates the overconfident behavior bias of a newsvendor when he is ambiguity-averse. By reducing the variance of demand distribution but preserving the mean with a linear function, we formulate a theoretical max–min optimization model that accounts for the influence of overconfidence and ambiguity aversion on the newsvendor’s decision. The closed-form solution for optimal order quantity is achieved by maximizing the expected profit against the worst distribution. Some conclusions are accordingly included. Firstly, the optimal order quantity is a linear function of the overconfident level, and it is decreasing in the overconfident level in the high-profit case, and increasing in the low-profit case. Secondly, overconfident newsvendors believe they are more precise, and thus gain more profits than the unbiased ones. However, overconfidence may actually raise order bias, and the expected costs increase in the overconfident level. Thirdly, overconfidence helps to alleviate the conservatism of ambiguity-averse optimization and the robust strategy performs reasonably better even if the demand distribution exists some misspecifications. In addition, we provide experiments supporting the theoretical relations. The closed-form solutions are tractable, and thus of great significance to the practical applications.
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DOI：
10.1287/opre.1060.0318
发表时间：
2006-11
期刊：
Oper. Res.
影响因子：
--
作者：
Jinfeng Yue;Bintong Chen;Min-Chiang Wang
通讯作者：
Jinfeng Yue;Bintong Chen;Min-Chiang Wang
DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.1001821
发表时间：
2007-05
期刊：
Behavioral & Experimental Economics eJournal
影响因子：
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作者：
P. Healy;D. Moore
通讯作者：
P. Healy;D. Moore
DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.2648601
发表时间：
2017-12
期刊：
28th Australasian Finance & Banking Conference 2015 (Archive)
影响因子：
--
作者：
Kenny Phua;T. M. Tham;Chishen Wei
通讯作者：
Kenny Phua;T. M. Tham;Chishen Wei
影响因子：
0.9
作者：
Zizhuo Wang;P. Glynn;Y. Ye
通讯作者：
Zizhuo Wang;P. Glynn;Y. Ye
影响因子：
3.6
作者：
I. Moon;Sangjin Choi
通讯作者：
I. Moon;Sangjin Choi