Identifying genotype specific elevated-risk areas and associated herd risk factors for bovine tuberculosis spread in British cattle.
Identifying genotype specific elevated-risk areas and associated herd risk factors for bovine tuberculosis spread in British cattle.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.epidem.2018.02.004
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发表时间：
2018-09
期刊：
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
Salvador LCM
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Orton RJ;Deason M;Bessell PR;Green DM;Kao RR;Salvador LCM
牛结核病风险升高的地区历史上比想象的更广泛。仅仅是牛群的迁移并不能解释高风险地区的蔓延。对于所有基因型，大多数感染传播是由于局部效应。在高风险地区和过渡地区查明的类似风险因素。风险因素是在发病率上升之前确定早期高风险地区的关键。牛结核病（bTB）是一种慢性人畜共患病，对养牛业造成重大健康和经济影响。尽管对牛采取了广泛的控制措施，并在野生动物中进行了扑杀试验，但英国bTB发病率高的地区扩大的原因仍然无法解释。通过平衡牛的运动和本地传播的重要性上观察到的牛的爆发模式，我们确定了特定的牛分枝杆菌基因型感染的风险升高的地区。我们发现，高风险地区（ERA）在历史上比以前所理解的更广泛，牛的运动本身是不够的ERA传播，这表明参与其他因素。对于所有的基因型，我们发现，虽然感染的绝对风险是较高的ERA相比，间歇性风险的地区，统计学显着的风险因素是非常相似的，在这两个，这表明这些风险因素可以用来识别早期的ERA之前，这是由单独的发病率升高。我们的研究结果确定了了解bTB动态，改善监测和指导管理以防止ERA进一步扩展的研究重点。
Bovine tuberculosis elevated-risk areas historically more extensive than thought. Cattle movements alone do not explain spread of areas of elevated risk. For all genotypes, the majority of infection spread is due to local effects. Similar risk-factors identified within elevated-risk and transitional areas. Risk factors key to identify incipient elevated-risk areas before incidence rising. Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is a chronic zoonosis with major health and economic impact on the cattle industry. Despite extensive control measures in cattle and culling trials in wildlife, the reasons behind the expansion of areas with high incidence of bTB breakdowns in Great Britain remain unexplained. By balancing the importance of cattle movements and local transmission on the observed pattern of cattle outbreaks, we identify areas at elevated risk of infection from specific Mycobacterium bovis genotypes. We show that elevated-risk areas (ERAs) were historically more extensive than previously understood, and that cattle movements alone are insufficient for ERA spread, suggesting the involvement of other factors. For all genotypes, we find that, while the absolute risk of infection is higher in ERAs compared to areas with intermittent risk, the statistically significant risk factors are remarkably similar in both, suggesting that these risk factors can be used to identify incipient ERAs before this is indicated by elevated incidence alone. Our findings identify research priorities for understanding bTB dynamics, improving surveillance and guiding management to prevent further ERA expansion.
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