Source Sector Attribution of CO2 Emissions Using an Urban CO/CO2 Bayesian Inversion System
Source Sector Attribution of CO2 Emissions Using an Urban CO/CO2 Bayesian Inversion System
复制标题
使用城市 CO/CO2 贝叶斯反演系统对 CO2 排放进行源部门归因
DOI：
10.1029/2018jd029231
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发表时间：
2018
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
K. Gurney
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Brian Nathan;T. Lauvaux;J. Turnbull;S. Richardson;N. Miles;K. Gurney
我们在一个高分辨率贝叶斯反演系统中同化多种痕量气体物种，以优化单个源部门的CO 2ff排放。从一氧化碳（CO）开始，这是一种众所周知的大气痕量气体，我们使用为每个来源部门定义的CO和CO 2ff（称为RCO）的排放因子，使我们能够联合使用CO和CO2大气摩尔分数来限制CO 2ff部门排放。我们首先表明，我们的联合CO-CO2反演理论上能够估计印第安纳波利斯两个特别定义的部门的部门排放量的相对大小，而CO2反演未能量化部门排放量。当同化4个月内收集的每小时摩尔分数时，逆部门排放量收敛于赫斯蒂亚自下而上的高分辨率CO2排放量。在不同的逆温配置下，两个扇区之间的排放比与赫斯提亚的排放比在15%以内。同化的CO摩尔分数优先改善流量估计交通排放量，因为来自内燃机部门的CO水平相对于其他经济部门大。在进一步的研究中，我们发现，与我们目前的CO和CO2摩尔分数两扇区反演相比，包括对其他扇区敏感的额外第三示踪剂仅略微提高了反演的准确性。最后，我们研究了痕量气体排放因子误差的影响，并量化了它们对基于行业的反向排放的相对影响。我们的结论是，如果痕量气体排放因子在城市一级足够为人所知，多物种反演可以在政策层面的不确定性下限制部门排放。
We assimilate multiple trace gas species within a single high‐resolution Bayesian inversion system to optimize CO2ff emissions for individual source sectors. Starting with carbon monoxide (CO), an atmospheric trace gas with fairly well‐known emissions, we use emission factors of CO and CO2ff (called RCO) defined for each source sector to enable us to jointly use CO and CO2 atmospheric mole fractions to constrain CO2ff sectoral emissions. We first show that our combined CO‐CO2 inversion is theoretically capable of estimating the relative magnitude of sectoral emissions for two, specially defined sectors over Indianapolis, while CO2‐only inversions failed at quantifying sectoral emissions. When assimilating hourly mole fractions collected over 4 months, inverse sectoral emissions converge toward high‐resolution CO2ff bottom‐up emissions from Hestia. The emission ratios between the two sectors agree within 15% with Hestia across various inversion configurations. The assimilation of CO mole fractions preferentially improves flux estimates from traffic emissions, because the CO levels originating from the combustion engine sector are large relative to those from other economic sectors. In a further investigation, we find that including an additional third tracer sensitive to the other sectors only slightly improves the accuracy of the inversion compared to our current two‐sector inversions with CO and CO2 mole fractions. We finally examined the impact of errors in trace gas emission factors and quantify their relative impact on sector‐based inverse emissions. We conclude that multispecies inversions can constrain sectoral emissions at policy‐level uncertainties if trace gas emission factors are sufficiently well known at the city level.
影响因子：
14.6
作者：
Martijn Gough
通讯作者：
Martijn Gough
影响因子：
4.9
作者：
Ciais, P.;Dolman, A. J.;Zehner, C.
通讯作者：
Zehner, C.