Rapid increase in the incidence of type 1 diabetes in Polish children from 1989 to 2004, and predictions for 2010 to 2025.
Rapid increase in the incidence of type 1 diabetes in Polish children from 1989 to 2004, and predictions for 2010 to 2025.
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DOI：
10.1007/s00125-010-1993-4
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发表时间：
2011-03
期刊：
影响因子：
8.2
通讯作者：
Rewers, M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jarosz-Chobot, P.;Polanska, J.;Szadkowska, A.;Kretowski, A.;Bandurska-Stankiewicz, E.;Ciechanowska, M.;Deja, G.;Mysliwiec, M.;Peczynska, J.;Rutkowska, J.;Sobel-Maruniak, A.;Fichna, P.;Chobot, A.;Rewers, M.
我们分析了波兰1989年至2004年儿童1型糖尿病发病率及其人口学决定因素的时间变化，并利用1970年至1989年的数据验证了模型。我们还估计了儿童糖尿病发病率在不久的将来的趋势预测模型。采用糖尿病流行病学和预防研究（EURODIAB）标准，前瞻性确定了来自波兰7个地区登记处的15岁以下新诊断1型糖尿病儿童。根据年龄、性别、季节性、地理区域和人口密度分析了1型糖尿病发病率（IR）。IR的时间趋势采用几种方法建模。1989年至2004年，按年龄和性别标准化的平均发病率为每年每10万人10.2例，从5.4例增加到17.7例。在男孩和女孩之间，或者在城市和农村地区之间没有发现差异。在4岁以上的儿童中，北方波兰人口的IR显著高于该国南部，在秋冬季节也是如此，这一发现与儿童性别无关。根据所获得的趋势模型，预计2010年将有近1，600名0至14岁的波兰儿童患1型糖尿病，到2025年将增至4，800多人。估计数表明，在2005年至2025年期间，IR至少增加了四倍，其中年龄较小的儿童的这种增加的动态最大。这些估计数字表明，波兰儿童1型糖尿病的发病率将比预计的整个欧洲人口的发病率高两倍。这一急剧增长可能会对波兰的医疗保健系统产生真实的下游影响。
We analysed the temporal changes in the incidence of childhood type 1 diabetes and its demographic determinants in Poland from 1989 to 2004, validating the model with data from 1970 to 1989. We also estimated a predictive model of the trends in childhood diabetes incidence for the near future. Children under 15 years with newly diagnosed type 1 diabetes mellitus and drawn from seven regional registries in Poland were ascertained prospectively using the Epidemiology and Prevention of Diabetes study (EURODIAB) criteria. The type 1 diabetes incidence rates (IRs) were analysed in dependency of age, sex, seasonality, geographical region and population density. Time trends in IR were modelled using several approaches. The average incidence, standardised by age and sex, for 1989 to 2004 was 10.2 per 100,000 persons per year and increased from 5.4 to 17.7. No difference was found between boys and girls, or between urban and rural regions. In children above 4 years, IR was significantly higher in the population of northern Poland than in that of the country’s southern part, as well as in the autumn–winter season, this finding being independent of child sex. Based on the trend model obtained, almost 1,600 Polish children aged 0 to 14 years are expected to develop type 1 diabetes in 2010, rising to more than 4,800 in 2025. The estimates suggest at least a fourfold increase of IR between 2005 and 2025, with the highest dynamics of this increment in younger children. These estimates show that Poland will have to face a twofold higher increase in childhood type 1 diabetes than predicted for the whole European population. The dramatic increase could have real downstream effects on Poland’s healthcare system.
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影响因子：
2.5
作者：
Chrzanowska, Maria;Koziel, Slawomir;Ulijaszek, Stanlej J.
通讯作者：
Ulijaszek, Stanlej J.
影响因子：
168.9
作者：
Harjutsalo, Valma;Sjoberg, Lena;Tuomilehto, Jaakko
通讯作者：
Tuomilehto, Jaakko
影响因子：
16.2
作者：
Dahlquist, GG;Patterson, C;Soltesz, G
通讯作者：
Soltesz, G
影响因子：
8.2
作者：
Soltész, G
通讯作者：
Soltész, G
影响因子：
3.4
作者：
Krischer, Jeffrey
通讯作者：
Krischer, Jeffrey