Climate risks and adaptation strategies of farmers in East Africa and South Asia.
Climate risks and adaptation strategies of farmers in East Africa and South Asia.
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DOI：
10.1038/s41598-021-89391-1
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发表时间：
2021-05-18
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Stirling CM
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Aryal JP;Sapkota TB;Rahut DB;Marenya P;Stirling CM
了解主要的气候风险、适应战略以及影响选择这些战略的因素，对于减少农民的脆弱性至关重要。利用来自埃塞俄比亚和肯尼亚(东非；EA)的2822户农户和孟加拉国、印度和尼泊尔(南亚；SA)的1902户农户的综合数据，本研究调查了农民面临的主要气候风险和他们所采取的适应策略。除其他外，过度降雨和作物病虫害发病率升高是所有研究地区普遍观察到的气候引起的风险，而气旋和盐碱度是孟加拉国独有的。干旱在埃塞俄比亚、印度、肯尼亚和尼泊尔很普遍。这些国家的农民采取的战略包括改变耕作方式、可持续的土地管理、减少消费、出售资产、使用储蓄和借款、寻求替代就业以及从政府或非政府组织获得援助。总体而言，农民同时面临几个多重气候风险，他们以多种适应战略应对。因此，本研究使用多变量概率位(MVP)方法来考察影响适应策略采用的因素。与其他研究不同，我们还对模型估计中可能的内生性进行了测试和修正。所有提到的国家应对气候变化的适应能力都很低，治理不力和机构效率低下进一步削弱了气候变化。我们观察到男性户主家庭(MHH)和女性户主家庭(FHH)以及不同国家在适应战略的选择上存在显著差异。一般而言，保健保健机构更有可能寻求额外的就业机会并改变农业做法，而保健保健机构和以老年人为户主的家庭则倾向于减少消费，依赖储蓄和借款。与SA相比，EA对适应的制度支持要少得多。关于替代耕作做法的培训、加强非农业就业选择、更好的机构支持以及为老年农民提供社会保障，对于这两个地区适应气候变化至关重要。
Understanding major climate risks, adaptation strategies, and factors influencing the choice of those strategies is crucial to reduce farmers’ vulnerability. Employing comprehensive data from 2822 farm households in Ethiopia and Kenya (East Africa; EA) and 1902 farm households in Bangladesh, India, and Nepal (South Asia; SA), this study investigates the main climate risks that farmers faced and the adaptation strategies they used. Among others, excessive rainfall and heightened crop pest/disease incidence are commonly observed climate-induced risks in all study areas, while cyclones and salinity are unique to Bangladesh. Drought is prevalent in Ethiopia, India, Kenya, and Nepal. Farmers in those countries responded with strategies that include change in farming practices, sustainable land management, reduce consumption, sell assets, use savings and borrowings, seek alternative employment and assistance from government or NGO. In general, farmers faced several multiple climate risks simultaneously and they responded with multiple adaptation strategies. Therefore, this study used a multivariate probit (MVP) approach to examine the factors influencing the adoption of adaptation strategies. Unlike other studies, we also tested and corrected for possible endogeneity in model estimation. All the countries mentioned have low adaptive capacity to address climate change, which is further weakened by inadequate governance and inefficient institutions. We observed significant differences in the choice of adaptation strategies between male-headed households (MHHs) and female-headed households (FHHs), as well as across countries. Generally, MHHs are more likely to seek additional employment and change agricultural practices, while FHHs and households headed by older persons tend to reduce consumption and rely on savings and borrowings. Institutional support for adaptation is much less in EA compared to SA. Training on alternative farming practices, enhancing non-farm employment options, better institutional support, and social security for older farmers are crucial for climate change adaptation in both regions.
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