Mathematical modeling of ovine footrot in the UK: the effect of Dichelobacter nodosus and Fusobacterium necrophorum on the disease dynamics.
Mathematical modeling of ovine footrot in the UK: the effect of Dichelobacter nodosus and Fusobacterium necrophorum on the disease dynamics.
复制标题
DOI：
10.1016/j.epidem.2017.04.001
复制
发表时间：
2017-12
期刊：
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
Keeling M
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Atia J;Monaghan E;Kaler J;Purdy K;Green L;Keeling M
研究 D. nodosus 和 F. necrophorum 在绵羊 FR 进展中的作用。使用细菌负荷和疾病严重程度开发马尔可夫模型。该模型会提前一周生成概率预测。单个脚的 12 种状态之间的所有 34 个速率都是时间同质的。结果表明 D. nodosus 在腐蹄病的发生和进展中起主要作用。结果表明，F. necrophorum 仅在严重患病的足部中发挥次要作用。结节二白菌是一种剧毒、侵入性、厌氧细菌，被认为是羊腐蹄病的病原体，羊腐蹄病是一种导致跛行的羊传染性细菌性疾病。另一种厌氧菌，坏死梭杆菌，与疾病的发生和严重程度密切相关。在这里，我们检查了英国一家农场的腐蹄病纵向研究的数据，包括对 D. nodosus 和 F. necrophorum 细菌负荷的定量 PCR (qPCR) 估计。数据为脚部水平；对所有足部进行为期五周的监测，评估疾病严重程度（健康、指间皮炎 (ID) 或严重腐烂足 (SFR)）和细菌负荷（/拭子的细菌数量）。我们使用具有 12 种不同足部特征的连续时间马尔可夫模型研究了 D. nodosus 和 F. necrophorum 在疾病进展中的作用。相邻状态之间的转换率是 (34) 个模型参数，这些参数是使用 Metropolis Hasting MCMC 确定的。我们的目的是确定过去和未来 D. nodosus 和 F. necrophorum 负荷与疾病状态之间的预测关系。尽管个体脚的动态具有高度随机性，但我们证明了 D. nodosus 模型在群体水平上的高水平预测准确性。然而，我们注意到，对于 F. necrophorum 模型，这种在群体水平上的预测准确性仅在疾病较多的状态下才较高。这支持了我们的假设，即 D. nodosus 负荷和足部工作状态共同导致严重的腐蹄和跛行，并且 D. nodosus 负荷在腐蹄的发生和进展中起主要作用，而 F. necrophorum 负荷反而增加了 SFR 疾病的严重程度。
Investigate the role of D. nodosus and F. necrophorum in the progression of ovine FR. Markovian model developed using bacterial load and disease severity. The model generates probabilistic forecasts one week ahead. All 34 rates between the 12 states of an individual foot are time homogeneous. Results suggest primary role of D. nodosus in the initiation and progression of footrot. Results suggest a secondary role of F. necrophorum only in severely diseased feet. Dichelobacter nodosus is a virulent, invasive, anaerobic bacterium that is believed to be the causative agent of ovine footrot, an infectious bacterial disease of sheep that causes lameness. Another anaerobe, Fusobacterium necrophorum, has been intimately linked with the disease occurrence and severity. Here we examine data from a longitudinal study of footrot on one UK farm, including quantitative PCR (qPCR) estimates of bacterial load of D. nodosus and F. necrophorum. The data is at foot level; all feet were monitored for five weeks assessing disease severity (healthy, interdigital dermatitis (ID), or severe footrot (SFR)) and bacterial load (number of bacteria/swab). We investigate the role of D. nodosus and F. necrophorum in the progress of the disease using a continuous-time Markov model with 12 different states characterising the foot. The transition rates between the adjacent states are the (34) model parameters, these are determined using Metropolis Hasting MCMC. Our aim is to determine the predictive relationship between past and future D. nodosus and F. necrophorum load and disease states. We demonstrate a high level of predictive accuracy at the population level for the D. nodosus model, although the dynamics of individual feet is highly stochastic. However, we note that this predictive accuracy at population level is only high in more diseased states for F. necrophorum model. This supports our hypothesis that D. nodosus load and status of the foot work in combination to give rise to severe footrot and lameness, and that D. nodosus load plays the primary role in the initiation and progression of footrot, while F. necrophorum load rather increases disease severity of SFR.
登录
查看更多内容
影响因子：
2.6
作者：
Witcomb LA;Green LE;Kaler J;Ul-Hassan A;Calvo-Bado LA;Medley GF;Grogono-Thomas R;Wellington EM
通讯作者：
Wellington EM
影响因子：
3.3
作者：
Moore, LJ;Wassink, GJ;Grogono-Thomas, R
通讯作者：
Grogono-Thomas, R
影响因子：
1.1
作者：
WHITTINGTON, RJ
通讯作者：
WHITTINGTON, RJ
影响因子：
1.8
作者：
Winter, A. C.
通讯作者：
Winter, A. C.
影响因子：
2.3
作者：
Bennett, Grant;Hickford, Jon;Zhou, Huitong
通讯作者：
Zhou, Huitong