Modelling morbidity for neglected tropical diseases: the long and winding road from cumulative exposure to long-term pathology.
Modelling morbidity for neglected tropical diseases: the long and winding road from cumulative exposure to long-term pathology.
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DOI：
10.1098/rstb.2022.0279
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发表时间：
2023-10-09
影响因子：
6.3
通讯作者：
Crellen, Thomas
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Borlase, Anna;Prada, Joaquin M.;Crellen, Thomas
减少被忽视的热带病 (NTD) 引起的发病率是正在进行的疾病控制计划的核心目标。 NTD 下的广泛病原体会导致一系列负面健康后果，从营养不良和贫血到器官衰竭、失明和致癌。对于某些 NTD，最严重的临床表现是在多年的慢性或反复感染后出现的。对于这些疾病，感染与长期病理风险之间的关联通常很复杂，并且年龄、合并症和宿主免疫反应等多种相互作用因素的影响往往很难量化。数学模型多年来一直用于深入了解传染病传播动态背后的复杂过程；然而，与慢性或累积暴露相关的长期发病率通常不纳入 NTD 的动态模型中。在这里，我们借鉴沙眼、血吸虫病和食源性吸虫病的案例研究，考虑确定累积病原体暴露与个体和人群发病率之间关系的复杂性和挑战。我们探索了将长期发病率明确纳入 NTD 传播模型的潜在框架，并考虑了此类框架可能在消除时代的政策相关预测方面带来的见解。本文是主题“抗击被忽视的热带病的挑战和机遇：《关于被忽视的热带疾病伦敦宣言》的十年”的一部分。
Reducing the morbidities caused by neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) is a central aim of ongoing disease control programmes. The broad spectrum of pathogens under the umbrella of NTDs lead to a range of negative health outcomes, from malnutrition and anaemia to organ failure, blindness and carcinogenesis. For some NTDs, the most severe clinical manifestations develop over many years of chronic or repeated infection. For these diseases, the association between infection and risk of long-term pathology is generally complex, and the impact of multiple interacting factors, such as age, co-morbidities and host immune response, is often poorly quantified. Mathematical modelling has been used for many years to gain insights into the complex processes underlying the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases; however, long-term morbidities associated with chronic or cumulative exposure are generally not incorporated into dynamic models for NTDs. Here we consider the complexities and challenges for determining the relationship between cumulative pathogen exposure and morbidity at the individual and population levels, drawing on case studies for trachoma, schistosomiasis and foodborne trematodiasis. We explore potential frameworks for explicitly incorporating long-term morbidity into NTD transmission models, and consider the insights such frameworks may bring in terms of policy-relevant projections for the elimination era. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Challenges and opportunities in the fight against neglected tropical diseases: a decade from the London Declaration on NTDs’.
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影响因子：
3.8
作者：
Vinkeles Melchers NVS;Stolk WA;Murdoch ME;Pedrique B;Kloek M;Bakker R;de Vlas SJ;Coffeng LE
通讯作者：
Coffeng LE
影响因子：
3.8
作者：
Ayabina DV;Clark J;Bayley H;Lamberton PHL;Toor J;Hollingsworth TD
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Hollingsworth TD
影响因子：
3.8
作者：
King CH;Bertino AM
通讯作者：
Bertino AM
DOI：
10.1093/trstmh/traa171
发表时间：
2021-03-06
影响因子：
2.2
作者：
Borlase A;Blumberg S;Callahan EK;Deiner MS;Nash SD;Porco TC;Solomon AW;Lietman TM;Prada JM;Hollingsworth TD
通讯作者：
Hollingsworth TD
DOI：
10.1016/j.trstmh.2004.06.010
发表时间：
2005-03
影响因子：
2.2
作者：
Polack SR;Solomon AW;Alexander ND;Massae PA;Safari S;Shao JF;Foster A;Mabey DC
通讯作者：
Mabey DC