Mapping brucellosis increases relative to elk density using hierarchical Bayesian models.
Mapping brucellosis increases relative to elk density using hierarchical Bayesian models.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0010322
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发表时间：
2010-04-23
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Brennan A
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cross PC;Heisey DM;Scurlock BM;Edwards WH;Ebinger MR;Brennan A
宿主密度和寄生虫传播之间的关系对于许多疾病管理策略的有效性至关重要。然而，很少有研究经验估计这种关系，特别是在大型哺乳动物。我们采用分层贝叶斯方法，超过6400成年雌性麋鹿（马鹿）在西北部怀俄明州布鲁氏菌病测试的19年的数据集。管理捕获发生在1月至3月的血清反应阳性的可能性超过2倍，而在9月至12月被杀害的狩猎麋鹿，同时占网站和年的影响。1991年，补充麋鹿饲养场的地区的血清阳性率高于其他地区，但到2009年，许多远离饲养场的地区的血清阳性率相当。布鲁氏杆菌病血清阳性率的增加与麋鹿管理单位或狩猎区规模（平均2070平方公里;范围=[95-10237]）的麋鹿密度相关。 然而，数据不能区分主机密度的线性和非线性效应。因此，控制工作，重点是减少麋鹿密度在一个广泛的空间尺度只有微弱的支持。需要进一步研究一个区域内的少数大型群体如何推动疾病动态，以便采取更有针对性和更有效的管理干预措施。布鲁氏菌病似乎正在扩大其范围到新的地区和麋鹿种群，这可能会使美国布鲁氏菌病根除计划进一步复杂化。这项研究是宿主种群动态如何影响其作为疾病储存库的能力的一个例子。
The relationship between host density and parasite transmission is central to the effectiveness of many disease management strategies. Few studies, however, have empirically estimated this relationship particularly in large mammals. We applied hierarchical Bayesian methods to a 19-year dataset of over 6400 brucellosis tests of adult female elk (Cervus elaphus) in northwestern Wyoming. Management captures that occurred from January to March were over two times more likely to be seropositive than hunted elk that were killed in September to December, while accounting for site and year effects. Areas with supplemental feeding grounds for elk had higher seroprevalence in 1991 than other regions, but by 2009 many areas distant from the feeding grounds were of comparable seroprevalence. The increases in brucellosis seroprevalence were correlated with elk densities at the elk management unit, or hunt area, scale (mean 2070 km2; range = [95–10237]). The data, however, could not differentiate among linear and non-linear effects of host density. Therefore, control efforts that focus on reducing elk densities at a broad spatial scale were only weakly supported. Additional research on how a few, large groups within a region may be driving disease dynamics is needed for more targeted and effective management interventions. Brucellosis appears to be expanding its range into new regions and elk populations, which is likely to further complicate the United States brucellosis eradication program. This study is an example of how the dynamics of host populations can affect their ability to serve as disease reservoirs.
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影响因子：
0.6
作者：
Dumyahn, Joseph B.;Zollner, Patrick A.;Gilbert, Jonathan H.
通讯作者：
Gilbert, Jonathan H.
影响因子：
4.8
作者：
Joly, DO;Messier, F
通讯作者：
Messier, F
影响因子：
11.8
作者：
Gourdon F;Beytout J;Reynaud A;Romaszko JP;Perre D;Theodore P;Soubelet H;Sirot J
通讯作者：
Sirot J
DOI：
10.1098/rspa.1927.0118
发表时间：
1927-08-01
期刊：
PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY OF LONDON SERIES A-CONTAINING PAPERS OF A MATHEMATICAL AND PHYSICAL CHARACTER
影响因子：
--
作者：
Kermack, WO;McKendrick, AG
通讯作者：
McKendrick, AG
影响因子：
5
作者：
Denoel, Mathieu;Ficetola, G. Francesco
通讯作者：
Ficetola, G. Francesco