Impacts of changing drainage indicators on urban flood volumes in historical urbanization in the case of Northern China

Impacts of changing drainage indicators on urban flood volumes in historical urbanization in the case of Northern China
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历史城镇化过程中排水指标变化对城市洪水量的影响——以华北地区为例

DOI:
10.1080/1573062x.2021.1893366
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发表时间:
2021-03
影响因子:
2.7
通讯作者:
Ren Yi
Ren Yi
中科院分区:
环境科学与生态学4区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Zhou Qianqian;Luo Jinhua;Su Jiongheng;Ren Yi

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摘要了解城市洪水变化的驱动力对于更好地制定未来的管理策略是非常重要的。本研究探讨了城市排水指标的变化(即,集水面积、不透水性、管长和管容)对城市洪水的影响。以北方为例,通过GIS处理模块、SWMM洪水模拟和统计分析,识别出变化显著的指标,并探讨了指标与洪水量之间的因果关系。结果表明,在不同的空间尺度上的排水指标有明显的区别。城市中心区的洪水量对城市发展和排水性能更为敏感。我们的回归模型在90%的置信水平下解释了所有空间尺度上85%以上的历史洪水变化。该研究有助于更好地讨论城市洪水与城市化模式和排水特性。
ABSTRACT Understanding the driving forces of urban flood variations is important for better formulating future management strategies. This study explores the changes in urban drainage indicators (i.e., catchment area, imperviousness, pipe length and capacity) in historical urbanization and their impacts on urban flood from multiple spatio-temporal scales. By employing a GIS-based processing module, a SWMM-based flood modelling and a statistical analysis, we identify the indicators with significant changes and explore the causal relationships between the indicators and flood volumes in a case study in Northern China. Results showed a clear distinction in drainage indicators at different spatial scales. Flood volume is more sensitive to urban development and drainage performance in urban center. Our regression models explained over 85% of the historical flood variations for all spatial scales at the 90% confidence level. The study contributes to a better discussion of urban flood vs. urbanization patterns and drainage characteristics.
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发表时间: 2017
影响因子: 6.4
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