Trends in flood losses in Europe over the past 150 years.
Trends in flood losses in Europe over the past 150 years.
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DOI：
10.1038/s41467-018-04253-1
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发表时间：
2018-05-29
影响因子：
16.6
通讯作者：
Jonkman SN
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Paprotny D;Sebastian A;Morales-Nápoles O;Jonkman SN
洪水的不利后果随时间而变化，并受到自然和社会经济趋势及相互作用的影响。在欧洲，以前的研究历史洪水损失校正人口和经济增长（“正常化”）的时间和空间范围有限，导致损失的趋势随着时间的推移不完整的代表性。在这里，我们利用了37个欧洲国家的洪水暴露的网格重建和自1870年以来破坏性洪水的新数据库。我们的结果表明，在校正洪水暴露的变化后，自1870年以来，每年被淹没的面积和受影响的人数有所增加，而洪水死亡人数却大幅减少。最近几十年，我们还发现每年的财务损失大幅下降。然而，我们估计，有大量的小洪水超过最近几年的漏报，并表明漏报观察到的趋势有很大的影响。洪水可能造成生命损失和经济损失，因此需要评估时间变化。在这里，作者表明，自1870年以来，欧洲被洪水淹没的面积有所增加，但死亡人数和经济损失有所减少，尽管警告说，较小的洪水仍被低估。
Adverse consequences of floods change in time and are influenced by both natural and socio-economic trends and interactions. In Europe, previous studies of historical flood losses corrected for demographic and economic growth (‘normalized’) have been limited in temporal and spatial extent, leading to an incomplete representation of trends in losses over time. Here we utilize a gridded reconstruction of flood exposure in 37 European countries and a new database of damaging floods since 1870. Our results indicate that, after correcting for changes in flood exposure, there has been an increase in annually inundated area and number of persons affected since 1870, contrasted by a substantial decrease in flood fatalities. For more recent decades we also found a considerable decline in financial losses per year. We estimate, however, that there is large underreporting of smaller floods beyond most recent years, and show that underreporting has a substantial impact on observed trends. Flooding may cause loss of life and economic damage, therefore temporal changes need assessment. Here, the authors show that since 1870 there has been an increase in area inundated by floods in Europe, but a reduction in fatalities and economic losses, although caution that smaller floods remain underreported.
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