Measuring changes in the illicit cigarette market using government revenue data: the example of South Africa.
Measuring changes in the illicit cigarette market using government revenue data: the example of South Africa.
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DOI：
10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2013-051178
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发表时间：
2014-05
期刊：
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
van Walbeek C
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
van Walbeek C
烟草业声称，自 20 世纪 90 年代以来，卷烟非法贸易急剧增加，政府损失了大量税收。 (1) 确定与前几十年相比，近年来卷烟消费税收入是否低于预算。 (2) 确定 1995 年以来非法市场规模的趋势。对于 (1)，计算了不同子时期三种产品（香烟、啤酒和烈酒）预算收入偏差的平均百分比误差和均方根百分比误差。对于（2），使用实际卷烟价格和GDP变化以及之前发布的价格和收入弹性估计来计算总消费的预测变化，并将其与纳税消费的变化进行比较。 2000-2012 年，卷烟消费税收入平均比预算低 0.7%，而啤酒比预算低 3.0%，烈酒比预算低 4.7%。没有证据表明南非卷烟非法贸易在 2002 年至 2009 年间有所增加。2010 年非法贸易大幅增加，可能在 2011 年达到顶峰。2012 年卷烟纳税消费量增加了 2.6%，这意味着非法市场份额估计下降了 0.6 个百分点。除 2010 年以外，没有证据表明非法贸易严重损害了政府收入。关于非法贸易在过去 15 年中持续增加，并且自 2010 年以来继续急剧增加的说法并没有得到支持。
The tobacco industry claims that illicit trade in cigarettes has increased sharply since the 1990s and that government has lost substantial tax revenue. (1) To determine whether cigarette excise tax revenue has been below budget in recent years, compared with previous decades. (2) To determine trends in the size of the illicit market since 1995. For (1), mean percentage errors and root mean square percentage errors were calculated for budget revenue deviation for three products (cigarettes, beer and spirits), for various subperiods. For (2), predicted changes in total consumption, using actual cigarette price and GDP changes and previously published price and income elasticity estimates, were calculated and compared with changes in tax-paid consumption. Cigarette excise revenues were 0.7% below budget for 2000–2012 on average, compared with 3.0% below budget for beer and 4.7% below budget for spirits. There is no evidence that illicit trade in cigarettes in South Africa increased between 2002 and 2009. There is a substantial increase in illicit trade in 2010, probably peaking in 2011. In 2012 tax-paid consumption of cigarettes increased 2.6%, implying that the illicit market share decreased an estimated 0.6 percentage points. Other than in 2010, there is no evidence that illicit trade is significantly undermining government revenue. Claims that illicit trade has consistently increased over the past 15 years, and has continued its sharp increase since 2010, are not supported.
影响因子：
1.3
作者：
Boshoff, Willem H.
通讯作者：
Boshoff, Willem H.
影响因子：
6
作者：
Joossens, Luk;Merriman, David;Raw, Martin
通讯作者：
Raw, Martin
影响因子：
5.2
作者：
Joossens, Luk;Raw, Martin
通讯作者：
Raw, Martin