The evidence for and urgency of threats to African wild dogs from prey depletion and climate change
The evidence for and urgency of threats to African wild dogs from prey depletion and climate change
复制标题
猎物枯竭和气候变化对非洲野狗构成威胁的证据和紧迫性
DOI：
10.1016/j.biocon.2023.110209
复制
发表时间：
2023
影响因子：
5.9
通讯作者：
Goodheart, Ben
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Creel, Scott;Becker, Matthew S.;de Merkle, Johnathan Reyes;Goodheart, Ben
许多非洲大型食肉动物的数量正在下降，这是由于它们所依赖的食草动物数量的下降。我们最近注意到，真正的顶端食肉动物，如狮子和斑点鬣狗的密度与猎物密度密切相关，但竞争性从属食肉动物，如非洲野狗受益于竞争性释放时，顶端食肉动物的密度低，所以预期的影响，同时减少资源和优势竞争对手是不明显的。我们发现，当猎物密度下降到临界点以下，野狗密度与猎物密度的关系改变了符号，野狗密度下降。我们还注意到，“猎物枯竭提供了一个机制上的直接解释模式，野狗动态已归因于气候变化”（克里尔等人，2023年）。Woodroffe等人同意猎物枯竭是一个重要的威胁，但认为我们未能理解他们断言“气候变化可能导致种群崩溃”的逻辑（Rabaiotti等人，2022年），因为“将气候变化确定为威胁并不是基于观察到的野狗种群的时间趋势”。这种说法没有抓住我们的基本要点。Woodroffe等人分析的数据是在气温上升和猎物数量下降的时期内收集的，因此无论是否测试人口统计学的时间趋势，数据本身都受到两种模式的影响：
Many African large carnivore populations are declining due to decline of the herbivore populations on which they depend. We recently noted that the densities of true apex carnivores like the lion and spotted hyena correlate strongly with prey density, but competitively subordinate carnivores like the African wild dog benefit from competitive release when density of apex carnivores is low, so the expected effect of a simultaneous decrease in resources and dominant competitors is not obvious. We found that when prey density drops below a tipping point, the relationship of wild dog density to prey density changes sign, and wild dog density declines. We also noted that ‘prey depletion provides a mechanistically direct explanation of patterns in wild dog dynamics that have been attributed to climate change’ (Creel et al., 2023). Woodroffe et al. concur that prey depletion is an important threat, but suggest that we fail to understand the logic of their assertion that “climate change is likely to cause population collapse” (Rabaiotti et al., 2022), because the “identification of climate change as a threat is not based upon observed temporal trends in wild dog demography”. This statement misses our fundamental point. The data that Woodroffe et al. analyzed were collected over a period with rising temperatures and declining prey populations, so whether or not one tests for a time trend in demography, the data themselves are affected by two patterns:
影响因子：
5.9
作者：
Creel, Scott;Becker, Matthew S.;de Merkle, Johnathan Reyes;Goodheart, Ben
通讯作者：
Goodheart, Ben
热狗：高温会影响热带食肉动物的繁殖成功率
影响因子：
4.8
作者：
R. Woodroffe;Rosemary J. Groom;Rosemary J. Groom;J. Mcnutt
通讯作者：
J. Mcnutt
影响因子：
5.9
作者：
Goodheart, Ben;Creel, Scott;Simukonda, Chuma
通讯作者：
Simukonda, Chuma