Livestock and human use of land: Productivity trends and dietary choices as drivers of future land and carbon dynamics
Livestock and human use of land: Productivity trends and dietary choices as drivers of future land and carbon dynamics
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畜牧业和人类对土地的利用：生产力趋势和饮食选择作为未来土地和碳动态的驱动因素
DOI：
10.1016/j.gloplacha.2017.10.002
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发表时间：
2017
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
M. Stevanović
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
I. Weindl;A. Popp;B. Bodirsky;S. Rolinski;H. Lotze;A. Biewald;Florian Humpenöder;J. Dietrich;M. Stevanović
土地利用变化一直是人类改变陆地生态系统的主要驱动力。由于80%的农业用地专门用于畜牧业生产，该部门是减少粮食生产的土地需求和土地利用变化造成的碳排放的重要杠杆。在这项研究中，我们量化了变化的人类饮食和牲畜生产力对土地动态和储存在植被、凋落物和土壤中的碳的消耗的影响。在所有被调查的生产力途径中，较低的畜产品消费量可以大大减少森林砍伐(47%-55%)和累计碳损失(34%-57%)。在供应方面，粗放型畜牧业生产系统的生产率增长本来就很小，这导致了二氧化碳排放量的大幅减少，但集约型系统生产率增长的减排潜力有限，这也涉及到与土壤碳储量的权衡。如果计入与未来贸易限制、作物产量和牧草生产率相关的不确定性，改变饮食预计的碳减排幅度将增加到23%-78%。如果减少以动物为基础的产品的消费，并持续投资于提高植物生产的生产率，则可以实现最大程度的碳排放削减(63-78%)。我们的分析强调，必须整合以需求和供应为导向的缓解战略，并在作物和畜牧业部门共同努力，以实现气候保护的协同增效。
Land use change has been the primary driving force of human alteration of terrestrial ecosystems. With 80% of agricultural land dedicated to livestock production, the sector is an important lever to attenuate land requirements for food production and carbon emissions from land use change. In this study, we quantify impacts of changing human diets and livestock productivity on land dynamics and depletion of carbon stored in vegetation, litter and soils. Across all investigated productivity pathways, lower consumption of livestock products can substantially reduce deforestation (47–55%) and cumulative carbon losses (34–57%). On the supply side, already minor productivity growth in extensive livestock production systems leads to substantial CO2emission abatement, but the emission saving potential of productivity gains in intensive systems is limited, also involving trade-offs with soil carbon stocks. If accounting for uncertainties related to future trade restrictions, crop yields and pasture productivity, the range of projected carbon savings from changing diets increases to 23–78%. Highest abatement of carbon emissions (63–78%) can be achieved if reduced consumption of animal-based products is combined with sustained investments into productivity increases in plant production. Our analysis emphasizes the importance to integrate demand- and supply-side oriented mitigation strategies and to combine efforts in the crop and livestock sector to enable synergies for climate protection.
影响因子：
30.7
作者：
Bajzelj, Bojana;Richards, Keith S.;Gilligan, Christopher A.
通讯作者：
Gilligan, Christopher A.
影响因子：
30.7
作者：
Popp, Alexander;Humpenoeder, Florian;Dietrich, Jan Philipp
通讯作者：
Dietrich, Jan Philipp