Effects of covid-19 pandemic on life expectancy and premature mortality in 2020: time series analysis in 37 countries.
Effects of covid-19 pandemic on life expectancy and premature mortality in 2020: time series analysis in 37 countries.
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DOI：
10.1136/bmj-2021-066768
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发表时间：
2021-11-03
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Lacey B
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Islam N;Jdanov DA;Shkolnikov VM;Khunti K;Kawachi I;White M;Lewington S;Lacey B
估计与2019冠状病毒病大流行相关的预期寿命变化和2020年的寿命损失。时间序列分析37个中上收入和高收入国家或地区拥有可靠和完整的死亡率数据。来自2005- 2020年人类死亡率数据库的年度全因死亡率数据，统一并按年龄和性别分列。预期寿命的减少估计为使用Lee-Carter模型观察到的预期寿命与2020年预期寿命之间的差异。超额寿命损失年数是使用世界卫生组织标准寿命表估算的2020年观察寿命损失年数与预期寿命损失年数之间的差额。除了新西兰，台湾和挪威外，所有研究的国家都观察到男性和女性的预期寿命减少，2020年预期寿命有所增加。在丹麦、冰岛和韩国没有发现预期寿命变化的证据。俄罗斯的预期寿命下降幅度最大（男性：-2.33，95%置信区间：-2.50至-2.17;女性：-2.14，-2.25至-2.03），美国（男性：-2.27，-2.39至-2.15;女性：-1.61，-1.70至-1.51），保加利亚（男子：−1.96，−2.11至−1.81;妇女：−1.37，−1.74至−1.01），立陶宛（男子：-1.83、-2.07至-1.59;妇女：-1.21、-1.36至-1.05），智利（男性：-1.64，-1.97至-1.32;女性：-0.88，-1.28至-0.50）和西班牙（男性：-1.35，-1.53至-1.18;女性：-1.13，-1.37至-0.90）。除台湾、新西兰、挪威、冰岛、丹麦和韩国外，所有国家2020年的寿命损失都高于预期。在其余31个国家中，2020年的寿命损失超过2.22亿年，这比预期的寿命损失多出2810万（95%置信区间为2680万至2950万）年（男性1730万（1680万至1780万），女性1080万（1040万至1130万））。保加利亚每10万人口中的寿命损失年数最高（男性：7260，95%置信区间6820至7710;女性：3730，2740至4730），俄罗斯（男性：7 020、6 550至7 480;女性：4 760、4 530至4 990），立陶宛（男性：5430，4750至6070;女性：2640，2310至2980），美国（男性：4 350、4 170至4 530;女性：2 430、2 320至2 550），波兰（男性：3830、3540至4120;女性：1830、1630至2040）和匈牙利（男性：2770、2490至3040;女性：1920、1590至2240）。65岁以下人群的超额寿命损失相对较低，但俄罗斯、保加利亚、立陶宛和美国除外，这些国家的超额寿命损失为每10万人中超过2000年。2020年，31个国家的寿命损失超过2800万年，男性的比例高于女性。2020年与2019冠状病毒病疫情相关的额外寿命损失是2015年与季节性流感疫情相关的寿命损失的五倍多。
To estimate the changes in life expectancy and years of life lost in 2020 associated with the covid-19 pandemic. Time series analysis. 37 upper-middle and high income countries or regions with reliable and complete mortality data. Annual all cause mortality data from the Human Mortality Database for 2005-20, harmonised and disaggregated by age and sex. Reduction in life expectancy was estimated as the difference between observed and expected life expectancy in 2020 using the Lee-Carter model. Excess years of life lost were estimated as the difference between the observed and expected years of life lost in 2020 using the World Health Organization standard life table. Reduction in life expectancy in men and women was observed in all the countries studied except New Zealand, Taiwan, and Norway, where there was a gain in life expectancy in 2020. No evidence was found of a change in life expectancy in Denmark, Iceland, and South Korea. The highest reduction in life expectancy was observed in Russia (men: −2.33, 95% confidence interval −2.50 to −2.17; women: −2.14, −2.25 to −2.03), the United States (men: −2.27, −2.39 to −2.15; women: −1.61, −1.70 to −1.51), Bulgaria (men: −1.96, −2.11 to −1.81; women: −1.37, −1.74 to −1.01), Lithuania (men: −1.83, −2.07 to −1.59; women: −1.21, −1.36 to −1.05), Chile (men: −1.64, −1.97 to −1.32; women: −0.88, −1.28 to −0.50), and Spain (men: −1.35, −1.53 to −1.18; women: −1.13, −1.37 to −0.90). Years of life lost in 2020 were higher than expected in all countries except Taiwan, New Zealand, Norway, Iceland, Denmark, and South Korea. In the remaining 31 countries, more than 222 million years of life were lost in 2020, which is 28.1 million (95% confidence interval 26.8m to 29.5m) years of life lost more than expected (17.3 million (16.8m to 17.8m) in men and 10.8 million (10.4m to 11.3m) in women). The highest excess years of life lost per 100 000 population were observed in Bulgaria (men: 7260, 95% confidence interval 6820 to 7710; women: 3730, 2740 to 4730), Russia (men: 7020, 6550 to 7480; women: 4760, 4530 to 4990), Lithuania (men: 5430, 4750 to 6070; women: 2640, 2310 to 2980), the US (men: 4350, 4170 to 4530; women: 2430, 2320 to 2550), Poland (men: 3830, 3540 to 4120; women: 1830, 1630 to 2040), and Hungary (men: 2770, 2490 to 3040; women: 1920, 1590 to 2240). The excess years of life lost were relatively low in people younger than 65 years, except in Russia, Bulgaria, Lithuania, and the US where the excess years of life lost was >2000 per 100 000. More than 28 million excess years of life were lost in 2020 in 31 countries, with a higher rate in men than women. Excess years of life lost associated with the covid-19 pandemic in 2020 were more than five times higher than those associated with the seasonal influenza epidemic in 2015.
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影响因子：
6.3
作者：
Aburto JM;Kashyap R;Schöley J;Angus C;Ermisch J;Mills MC;Dowd JB
通讯作者：
Dowd JB
影响因子：
7.7
作者：
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通讯作者：
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监测 COVID-19 大流行对英国心血管疾病服务的间接影响。
DOI：
10.1136/heartjnl-2020-317870
发表时间：
2020-12
期刊：
Heart (British Cardiac Society)
影响因子：
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作者：
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通讯作者：
CVD-COVID-UK Consortium
DOI：
10.1136/bmj.k2562
发表时间：
2018-08-15
期刊：
BMJ (Clinical research ed.)
影响因子：
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作者：
Ho JY;Hendi AS
通讯作者：
Hendi AS
DOI：
10.1016/s0140-6736(20)32007-9
发表时间：
2020-11-07
期刊：
Lancet (London, England)
影响因子：
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作者：
Han E;Tan MMJ;Turk E;Sridhar D;Leung GM;Shibuya K;Asgari N;Oh J;García-Basteiro AL;Hanefeld J;Cook AR;Hsu LY;Teo YY;Heymann D;Clark H;McKee M;Legido-Quigley H
通讯作者：
Legido-Quigley H