Estimating the burden of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality, life expectancy and lifespan inequality in England and Wales: a population-level analysis.
Estimating the burden of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality, life expectancy and lifespan inequality in England and Wales: a population-level analysis.
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DOI：
10.1136/jech-2020-215505
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发表时间：
2021-08
影响因子：
6.3
通讯作者：
Dowd JB
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Aburto JM;Kashyap R;Schöley J;Angus C;Ermisch J;Mills MC;Dowd JB
与COVID-19感染直接相关的死亡可能被错误分类，而大流行可能间接影响了其他死亡原因。为克服该等计量挑战，我们透过对超额死亡率的分析，估计2019冠状病毒病疫情对英格兰及威尔士自2020年第10周至截至2020年11月20日止第47周期间的死亡率、预期寿命及寿命不平等的影响。我们使用国家统计局的数据对四种不同的模型进行了系统比较，估计了年龄和性别特异性超额死亡风险以及根据季节性调整的基线以上死亡。我们还提供了出生时预期寿命和寿命不平等的估计值，定义为死亡年龄的SD。在2020年的前47周，有57419人（95%预测区间：54197，60752）死亡，其中55%发生在男性身上。超额死亡随着年龄的增长而急剧增加，所有年龄组的男子死亡风险都增加。与2019年的水平相比，女性和男性的出生时预期寿命分别下降了0.9岁和1.2岁。在同一时期，男女寿命不平等也减少了5个月。量化超额死亡及其对出生时预期寿命的影响，可以更全面地了解COVID-19对死亡率的负担。死亡率是否会恢复到基线水平，甚至下降到基线水平以下，仍有待观察，因为大流行仍在继续发展，各种干预措施也已到位。
Deaths directly linked to COVID-19 infection may be misclassified, and the pandemic may have indirectly affected other causes of death. To overcome these measurement challenges, we estimate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality, life expectancy and lifespan inequality from week 10 of 2020, when the first COVID-19 death was registered, to week 47 ending 20 November 2020 in England and Wales through an analysis of excess mortality. We estimated age and sex-specific excess mortality risk and deaths above a baseline adjusted for seasonality with a systematic comparison of four different models using data from the Office for National Statistics. We additionally provide estimates of life expectancy at birth and lifespan inequality defined as the SD in age at death. There have been 57 419 (95% prediction interval: 54 197, 60 752) excess deaths in the first 47 weeks of 2020, 55% of which occurred in men. Excess deaths increased sharply with age and men experienced elevated risks of death in all age groups. Life expectancy at birth dropped 0.9 and 1.2 years for women and men relative to the 2019 levels, respectively. Lifespan inequality also fell over the same period by 5 months for both sexes. Quantifying excess deaths and their impact on life expectancy at birth provide a more comprehensive picture of the burden of COVID-19 on mortality. Whether mortality will return to—or even fall below—the baseline level remains to be seen as the pandemic continues to unfold and diverse interventions are put in place.
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影响因子：
6.3
作者：
Hiam, Lucinda;Harrison, Dominic;Dorling, Danny
通讯作者：
Dorling, Danny
影响因子：
2
作者：
DOUGHERTY, RL;EDELMAN, A;HYMAN, JM
通讯作者：
HYMAN, JM
DOI：
10.1136/bmj.k2562
发表时间：
2018-08-15
期刊：
BMJ (Clinical research ed.)
影响因子：
--
作者：
Ho JY;Hendi AS
通讯作者：
Hendi AS
DOI：
10.1016/s1473-3099(20)30243-7
发表时间：
2020-06-01
期刊：
The Lancet. Infectious diseases
影响因子：
--
作者：
Verity, Robert;Okell, Lucy C;Ferguson, Neil M
通讯作者：
Ferguson, Neil M
影响因子：
6.4
作者：
Viboud, Cecile;Simonsen, Lone;Chowell, Gerardo
通讯作者：
Chowell, Gerardo