Past, Current, and Future Incidence Rates and Burden of Metastatic Prostate Cancer in the United States.
Past, Current, and Future Incidence Rates and Burden of Metastatic Prostate Cancer in the United States.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.euf.2017.10.014
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发表时间：
2018-01
影响因子：
5.4
通讯作者：
Cook MB
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kelly SP;Anderson WF;Rosenberg PS;Cook MB
转移性前列腺癌(PCa)在美国仍然是一种高度致命的恶性肿瘤。随着前列腺特异性抗原检测在全国范围内的下降，需要对当前年龄和种族特定的发病率趋势进行详细评估和定量预测。根据年龄和种族评估当前转移性前列腺癌的趋势，并预测新病例的数量(年负担)和未来的趋势。我们从基于人群的监测、流行病学和最终结果登记中得出了年龄为≥45岁的男性患者的转移性前列腺癌的发病率数据。我们研究了2004年至2014年转移性前列腺癌的当前趋势，并使用年龄-时期-队列模型和人口预测预测了2015-2025年按年龄和种族划分的年度负担和发病率。我们还使用2012年发布的修订筛查指南之前的趋势检查了替代预测(2012-2025年)。转移性前列腺癌从2004年到2007年以每年1.45%的速度稳步下降，2008年后开始以每年0.58%的速度增长，在2012年美国预防服务工作组的建议下加速至2.74%/年--这一模式在≤69岁的男性和白人男性中被放大。预测到2025年，发病率将增长1.03%/年，其中45-54岁的男性(2.29%/年)和55-69岁的男性(1.53%/年)增长更快。与此同时，预计到2025年，每年的负担将增加42%。我们的预测估计，从2015年到2025年，与2012年之前使用趋势的其他预测相比，转移病例增加了15 891例。最近转移性前列腺癌发病率的上升导致预测到2025年，尤其是在≤69岁的男性中，转移性前列腺癌的发病率将会上升。此外，预计种族差距将持续存在，每年的负担将大幅增加。先前和当前的PCa筛查建议对转移性PCa发生率的影响需要继续研究。在这份报告中，我们评估了转移性前列腺癌的发病率在最近几年中的变化，并预测了未来的发病率趋势和每年预计的新病例数量。我们发现，自2012年以来，转移性前列腺癌的发病率增长更快，导致未来的发病率和到2025年的新病例数量都有所上升。在2012年美国预防服务工作组(USPSTF)建议不要进行前列腺癌的前列腺特异性抗原(PSA)检测之前，使用替代预测数据降低了未来的发病率和新病例数量，还需要进一步的研究来检验遵循USPSTF建议的全国PSA检测率的下降是否导致了转移性疾病的增加。与白人男性相比，黑人男性的转移性疾病的发病率预计仍会高得多。在2012年美国预防服务工作组的建议之后，转移性前列腺癌发病率的急剧上升可能推动了未来几年的预期增长，特别是在≤69岁的男性中。预计种族差距将持续存在，每年的负担将大幅增加。
Metastatic prostate cancer (PCA) remains a highly lethal malignancy in the USA. As prostate-specific antigen testing declines nationally, detailed assessment of current age- and race-specific incidence trends and quantitative forecasts are needed. To evaluate the current trends of metastatic PCA by age and race, and forecast the number of new cases (annual burden) and future trends. We derived incidence data for men aged ≥45 yr who were diagnosed with metastatic PCA from the population-based Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results registries. We examined the current trends of metastatic PCA from 2004 to 2014, and forecast the annual burden and incidence rates by age and race for 2015–2025, using age–period–cohort models and population projections. We also examined alternative forecasts (2012–2025) using trends prior to the revised screening guidelines issued in 2012. Metastatic PCA, steadily declining from 2004 to 2007 by 1.45%/yr, began to increase by 0.58%/yr after 2008, which accelerated to 2.74%/yr following the 2012 United States Preventive Services Task Force recommendations—a pattern that was magnified among men aged ≤69 yr and white men. Forecasts project the incidence to increase by 1.03%/yr through 2025, with men aged 45–54 yr (2.29%/yr) and 55–69 yr (1.53%/yr) increasing more rapidly. Meanwhile, the annual burden is expected to increase 42% by 2025. Our forecasts estimated an additional 15 891 metastatic cases from 2015 to 2025 compared with alternative forecasts using trends prior to 2012. The recent uptick in metastatic PCA rates has resulted in forecasts that project increasing rates through 2025, particularly among men aged ≤69 yr. Moreover, racial disparities are expected to persist and the annual burden will increase considerably. The impact of the prior and current PCA screening recommendations on metastatic PCA rates requires continued examination. In this report, we assessed how the incidence of metastatic prostate cancer has changed over recent years, and forecast future incidence trends and the number of new cases expected each year. We found that the incidence of metastatic prostate cancer has been increasing more rapidly since 2012, resulting in a rise in both future incidence and the number of new cases by 2025. Future incidence rates and the number of new cases were reduced in alternative forecasts using data prior to the 2012 United States Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) recommendations against prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing for prostate cancer, and further study is required to examine if national declines in PSA testing rates, which followed the USPSTF recommendations, have contributed to increasing rates of metastatic disease. The incidence of metastatic disease in black men is still expected to occur at considerably higher rates compared with that in white men. The sharp uptick in metastatic prostate cancer rates following the 2012 United States Preventive Services Task Force recommendations may be driving a projected increase in future years, particularly among men aged ≤69 yr. Racial disparities are expected to persist, and the annual burden will increase considerably.
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影响因子：
23.4
作者：
Kelly SP;Rosenberg PS;Anderson WF;Andreotti G;Younes N;Cleary SD;Cook MB
通讯作者：
Cook MB
影响因子：
3.6
作者：
Etzioni, Ruth;Gulati, Roman;Penson, David F.
通讯作者：
Penson, David F.
DOI：
10.1038/nrurol.2016.251
发表时间：
2017-01
期刊：
Nature reviews. Urology
影响因子：
--
作者：
Fleshner K;Carlsson SV;Roobol MJ
通讯作者：
Roobol MJ
影响因子：
2
作者：
Rosenberg, Philip S.;Anderson, William F.
通讯作者：
Anderson, William F.
影响因子：
4.8
作者：
Weiner, A. B.;Matulewicz, R. S.;Schaeffer, E. M.
通讯作者：
Schaeffer, E. M.