People accurately predict the transition probabilities between actions.
People accurately predict the transition probabilities between actions.
复制标题
人们准确地预测动作之间的转移概率。
DOI：
10.1126/sciadv.abd4995
复制
发表时间：
2021-03
期刊：
影响因子：
13.6
通讯作者：
Tamir DI
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Thornton MA;Tamir DI
人们准确地预测日常行动的序列，部分得到了为此类预测量身定制的概念知识的支持。社会生活是一场复杂的舞蹈。要想优雅地与伴侣协调，就必须预测他们的行动。在这里，我们研究了人们如何预测他人的行为。我们假设，人们可以准确地预测他人的未来行动的基础上，他们的当前行动的知识，加上知识的行动转变。为了测试人们是否对动作之间的转移概率有准确的了解，我们比较了实际的动作转移率-从四个大的自然主义模型计算-参与者对相应动作之间的转移概率的评级。在五项预先注册的研究中，参与者展示了准确的动作转换心理模型。此外，我们发现，人们利用六维ACT-FASTaxonomy描述的行为概念知识来指导他们的准确预测。总之，这些结果表明，人们可以准确地预测其他人在社交生活中的舞蹈动作，并且动作知识的结构可能是针对这些预测的。
People accurately predict sequences of everyday actions, supported in part by conceptual knowledge tailored for such predictions. Social life is a complex dance. To coordinate gracefully with one’s partners, one must predict their actions. Here, we investigated how people predict others’ actions. We hypothesized that people can accurately predict others’ future actions based on knowledge of their current actions, coupled with knowledge of action transitions. To test whether people have accurate knowledge of the transition probabilities between actions, we compared actual rates of action transitions—calculated from four large naturalistic datasets—to participants’ ratings of the transition probabilities between corresponding sets of actions. In five preregistered studies, participants demonstrated accurate mental models of action transitions. Furthermore, we found that people drew upon conceptual knowledge of actions—described by the six-dimensional ACT-FASTaxonomy—to guide their accurate predictions. Together, these results indicate that people can accurately anticipate other people’s moves in the dance of social life and that the structure of action knowledge may be tailored to making these predictions.
登录
查看更多内容
影响因子：
3.8
作者：
Schubotz RI;Wurm MF;Wittmann MK;von Cramon DY
通讯作者：
von Cramon DY
影响因子：
2
作者：
Changizi, MA
通讯作者：
Changizi, MA
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Nicholson, Toby;Roser, Matt;Bach, Patric
通讯作者：
Bach, Patric
DOI：
10.1037//0096-1523.28.3.499
发表时间：
2002-06-01
影响因子：
2.1
作者：
Bardy, BG;Oullier, O;Stoffregen, TA
通讯作者：
Stoffregen, TA
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1607601113
发表时间：
2016-10-18
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Berman, Gordon J.;Bialek, William;Shaevitz, Joshua W.
通讯作者：
Shaevitz, Joshua W.