Epidemiological modelling in refugee and internally displaced people settlements: challenges and ways forward.
Epidemiological modelling in refugee and internally displaced people settlements: challenges and ways forward.
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DOI：
10.1136/bmjgh-2021-007822
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发表时间：
2022-03
影响因子：
8.1
通讯作者：
Luengo-Oroz M
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Aylett-Bullock J;Gilman RT;Hall I;Kennedy D;Evers ES;Katta A;Ahmed H;Fong K;Adib K;Al Ariqi L;Ardalan A;Nabeth P;von Harbou K;Hoffmann Pham K;Cuesta-Lazaro C;Quera-Bofarull A;Gidraf Kahindo Maina A;Valentijn T;Harlass S;Krauss F;Huang C;Moreno Jimenez R;Comes T;Gaanderse M;Milano L;Luengo-Oroz M
新冠肺炎等传染病的传播给世界各地的医疗体系和基础设施带来了许多挑战，加剧了不平等，并使世界上最脆弱的人群面临风险。流行病学建模对于指导循证决策或数据驱动决策至关重要。在被迫流离失所的情况下，特别是在难民和境内流离失所者安置点，它面临若干挑战，包括数据的可获得性和质量、现有模型对这些情况的适用性、对这些业务环境的文化差异或特殊性的准确建模、成果和不确定性的沟通以及在复杂局势中不同合作伙伴之间的战略目标协调。在这篇文章中，我们系统地回顾了迄今为止应用于难民和境内流离失所者定居点的有限的流行病学建模工作，并讨论了挑战并确定了从这一过程中吸取的经验教训。随着更多的人因冲突和气候变化而流离失所，预计未来疾病暴发的可能性将增加，我们呼吁制定更多专门设计的办法和模式，以纳入难民和境内流离失所者定居点的独特特点和人口。为了加强建模机构和人道主义公共卫生界之间的合作，我们提出了一个路线图，以鼓励开发系统和框架，以高效和可扩展的方式分享需求、建立工具和协调应对措施，以应对这次大流行和未来的疫情。
The spread of infectious diseases such as COVID-19 presents many challenges to healthcare systems and infrastructures across the world, exacerbating inequalities and leaving the world’s most vulnerable populations at risk. Epidemiological modelling is vital to guiding evidence-informed or data-driven decision making. In forced displacement contexts, and in particular refugee and internally displaced people (IDP) settlements, it meets several challenges including data availability and quality, the applicability of existing models to those contexts, the accurate modelling of cultural differences or specificities of those operational settings, the communication of results and uncertainties, as well as the alignment of strategic goals between diverse partners in complex situations. In this paper, we systematically review the limited epidemiological modelling work applied to refugee and IDP settlements so far, and discuss challenges and identify lessons learnt from the process. With the likelihood of disease outbreaks expected to increase in the future as more people are displaced due to conflict and climate change, we call for the development of more approaches and models specifically designed to include the unique features and populations of refugee and IDP settlements. To strengthen collaboration between the modelling and the humanitarian public health communities, we propose a roadmap to encourage the development of systems and frameworks to share needs, build tools and coordinate responses in an efficient and scalable manner, both for this pandemic and for future outbreaks.
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影响因子：
3.5
作者：
Aylett-Bullock J;Cuesta-Lazaro C;Quera-Bofarull A;Icaza-Lizaola M;Sedgewick A;Truong H;Curran A;Elliott E;Caulfield T;Fong K;Vernon I;Williams J;Bower R;Krauss F
通讯作者：
Krauss F
影响因子：
8.1
作者：
Aguas R;White L;Hupert N;Shretta R;Pan-Ngum W;Celhay O;Moldokmatova A;Arifi F;Mirzazadeh A;Sharifi H;Adib K;Sahak MN;Franco C;Coutinho R;CoMo Consortium
通讯作者：
CoMo Consortium
影响因子：
4.9
作者：
Crooks, Andrew T.;Hailegiorgis, Atesmachew B.
通讯作者：
Hailegiorgis, Atesmachew B.
DOI：
10.1111/j.1095-8312.1991.tb00548.x
发表时间：
1991-01-01
影响因子：
1.9
作者：
HANSKI, I;GILPIN, M
通讯作者：
GILPIN, M
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Christley, Robert M.;Mort, Maggie;Latham, Sophia M.
通讯作者：
Latham, Sophia M.