Reproducible brain-wide association studies require thousands of individuals.

Reproducible brain-wide association studies require thousands of individuals.
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DOI:
10.1038/s41586-022-04492-9
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发表时间:
2022-03
期刊:
影响因子:
64.8
通讯作者:
Dosenbach NUF
Dosenbach NUF
中科院分区:
综合性期刊1区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Marek S;Tervo-Clemmens B;Calabro FJ;Montez DF;Kay BP;Hatoum AS;Donohue MR;Foran W;Miller RL;Hendrickson TJ;Malone SM;Kandala S;Feczko E;Miranda-Dominguez O;Graham AM;Earl EA;Perrone AJ;Cordova M;Doyle O;Moore LA;Conan GM;Uriarte J;Snider K;Lynch BJ;Wilgenbusch JC;Pengo T;Tam A;Chen J;Newbold DJ;Zheng A;Seider NA;Van AN;Metoki A;Chauvin RJ;Laumann TO;Greene DJ;Petersen SE;Garavan H;Thompson WK;Nichols TE;Yeo BTT;Barch DM;Luna B;Fair DA;Dosenbach NUF

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磁共振成像(MRI)通过将能力映射到特定结构(例如,病变研究)和功能(例如,任务功能性MRI(fMRI)),改变了我们对人类大脑的理解。心理健康研究和护理还没有从MRI中实现类似的进步。一个主要的挑战是复制大脑结构或功能的个体间差异与复杂的认知或心理健康表型之间的关联(全脑关联研究(BWAS))。这种BWAS通常依赖于适合经典脑映射的样本量(神经影像学研究样本量的中位数约为25),但对于捕获可重复的脑行为表型关联来说可能太小了。在这里,我们使用了目前可用的三个最大的神经成像数据集(总样本量约为50,000人)来量化BWAS效应大小和可重复性(作为样本量的函数)。BWAS的关联比以前认为的要小,导致统计学上的研究不足,在典型的样本量下,效应量膨胀和复制失败。随着样本量增长到数千,复制率开始提高,效应量膨胀下降。更强大的BWAS效果检测功能性MRI(与结构),认知测试(与心理健康问卷)和多变量方法(与单变量)。小于预期的脑-表型关联和群体子样本的变异性可以解释广泛的BWAS复制失败。与具有较大影响的非BWAS方法(例如,病变,干预和人员内)相比,BWAS重现性需要数千人的样本。来自三项大型研究的综合数据,总样本量约为50,000人,表明许多先前将大脑与复杂表型联系起来的研究在统计上力量不足,产生了夸大和不可复制的效果。
Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) has transformed our understanding of the human brain through well-replicated mapping of abilities to specific structures (for example, lesion studies) and functions (for example, task functional MRI (fMRI)). Mental health research and care have yet to realize similar advances from MRI. A primary challenge has been replicating associations between inter-individual differences in brain structure or function and complex cognitive or mental health phenotypes (brain-wide association studies (BWAS)). Such BWAS have typically relied on sample sizes appropriate for classical brain mapping (the median neuroimaging study sample size is about 25), but potentially too small for capturing reproducible brain–behavioural phenotype associations. Here we used three of the largest neuroimaging datasets currently available—with a total sample size of around 50,000 individuals—to quantify BWAS effect sizes and reproducibility as a function of sample size. BWAS associations were smaller than previously thought, resulting in statistically underpowered studies, inflated effect sizes and replication failures at typical sample sizes. As sample sizes grew into the thousands, replication rates began to improve and effect size inflation decreased. More robust BWAS effects were detected for functional MRI (versus structural), cognitive tests (versus mental health questionnaires) and multivariate methods (versus univariate). Smaller than expected brain–phenotype associations and variability across population subsamples can explain widespread BWAS replication failures. In contrast to non-BWAS approaches with larger effects (for example, lesions, interventions and within-person), BWAS reproducibility requires samples with thousands of individuals. Combined data from three large studies, with a total sample size of around 50,000 individuals, indicate that many previous studies linking the brain to complex phenotypes have been statistically underpowered, producing inflated and irreproducible effects.
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