Global atmospheric emissions of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons from 1960 to 2008 and future predictions.
Global atmospheric emissions of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons from 1960 to 2008 and future predictions.
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DOI：
10.1021/es400857z
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发表时间：
2013-06-18
影响因子：
11.4
通讯作者：
Tao, Shu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Shen, Huizhong;Huang, Ye;Wang, Rong;Zhu, Dan;Li, Wei;Shen, Guofeng;Wang, Bin;Zhang, Yanyan;Chen, Yuanchen;Lu, Yan;Chen, Han;Li, Tongchao;Sun, Kang;Li, Bengang;Liu, Wenxin;Liu, Junfeng;Tao, Shu
对1960年至2030年期间来自69个主要来源的16种多环芳烃(PAHs)的全球大气排放量进行了估计。利用回归模型和技术分解法估算了不同国家和时间的特定排放因子，得到了不同国家和时间内多环芳烃排放因子变化的新估计值。根据最新开发的全球高分辨率燃料燃烧清单(PKU-Fuel-2007)，2007年的多环芳烃排放量被空间解析为0.1°×0.1°网格。2007年全球16种多环芳烃的年总排放量为504千兆克(331-818千兆克)，其中住宅/商业生物质燃烧(60.5%)、露天生物质燃烧(农业废物焚烧、毁林和野火，13.6%)和道路机动车辆消耗石油(12.8%)是主要来源。南方(87GG)、东亚(111GG)和东南亚(52GG)是多环芳烃排放密度最高的地区，占全球多环芳烃排放总量的一半。在全球多环芳烃排放总量中，高分子量致癌化合物占全球排放总量的6.19%，由于能源结构的差异和技术的差异，发展中国家的致癌多环芳烃的比例(6.22%)高于发达国家(5.73%)。由于高排放和高人口密度的重叠，多环芳烃排放对健康的潜在影响在人为多环芳烃排放量较高的世界部分地区最大。全球多环芳烃总排放量在1995年达到592千兆克的峰值，并在2008年逐渐下降到499千兆克。发达国家的多环芳烃排放总量在1970年代初达到122千兆克的峰值，并在2008年下降到38千兆克。对2009年至2030年多环芳烃排放的模拟显示，根据IPCC SRES的6个情景，发达国家和发展中国家的多环芳烃排放量将分别减少46%-71%和48%-。
Global atmospheric emissions of 16 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) from 69 major sources were estimated for a period from 1960 to 2030. Regression models and a technology split method were used to estimate country and time specific emission factors, resulting in a new estimate of PAH emission factor variation among different countries and over time. PAH emissions in 2007 were spatially resolved to 0.1°× 0.1° grids based on a newly developed global high-resolution fuel combustion inventory (PKU-FUEL-2007). The global total annual atmospheric emission of 16 PAHs in 2007 was 504 Gg (331-818 Gg, as interquartile range), with residential/commercial biomass burning (60.5%), open-field biomass burning (agricultural waste burning, deforestation, and wildfire, 13.6%), and petroleum consumption by on-road motor vehicles (12.8%) as the major sources. South (87 Gg), East (111 Gg), and Southeast Asia (52 Gg) were the regions with the highest PAH emission densities, contributing half of the global total PAH emissions. Among the global total PAH emissions, 6.19% of the emissions were in the form of high molecular weight carcinogenic compounds and the percentage of the carcinogenic PAHs was higher in developing countries (6.22%) than in developed countries (5.73%), due to the differences in energy structures and the disparities of technology. The potential health impact of the PAH emissions was greatest in the parts of the world with high anthropogenic PAH emissions, because of the overlap of the high emissions and high population densities. Global total PAH emissions peaked at 592 Gg in 1995 and declined gradually to 499 Gg in 2008. Total PAH emissions from developed countries peaked at 122 Gg in the early 1970s and decreased to 38 Gg in 2008. Simulation of PAH emissions from 2009 to 2030 revealed that PAH emissions in developed and developing countries would decrease by 46-71% and 48-64%, respectively, based on the six IPCC SRES scenarios.
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影响因子：
11.4
作者：
Galarneau, Elisabeth;Makar, Paul A.;Diamond, Miriam L.
通讯作者：
Diamond, Miriam L.
影响因子：
11.4
作者：
Schauer, C;Niessner, R;Pöschl, U
通讯作者：
Pöschl, U
影响因子：
5.2
作者：
Bond, Tami C.;Bhardwaj, Ekta;Trautmann, Nina M.
通讯作者：
Trautmann, Nina M.
影响因子：
11.4
作者：
Lang, Chang;Tao, Shu;Simonich, Staci
通讯作者：
Simonich, Staci
影响因子：
5
作者：
LAFLAMME, RE;HITES, RA
通讯作者：
HITES, RA