Estimating Second Order Probability Beliefs from Subjective Survival Data.
Estimating Second Order Probability Beliefs from Subjective Survival Data.
复制标题
DOI：
10.1287/deca.2013.0266
复制
发表时间：
2013-06
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Willis RJ
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hudomiet P;Willis RJ
基于健康与退休研究（HRS）中的主观生存概率问题，我们使用计量经济模型来估计个人寿命不确定性的决定因素。该模型是围绕模态响应假设（MRH）建立的，这是一种数学表达，即对概率问题的调查回答为0%、50%或100%，表明相关概率的不确定性很高。我们发现，2002年的主观生存预期与2002年至2010年间HRS受访者的实际死亡率非常吻合。我们表明，MRH模型比主观概率文献中通常使用的模型表现得更好。我们的模型对低概率事件给出了更准确的估计，并且能够预测在主观概率的许多数据集中观察到的异常高比例的焦点0%、50%和100%的答案。我们发现，在形成对自己寿命的预期时，受试者过于看重父母的死亡年龄，而其他协变量，如人口统计学、认知、个性、主观健康和健康行为的权重不足。我们还发现，受教育程度较低的人、吸烟者和女性的信念不那么确定，最近的健康冲击也增加了人们对生存的不确定性。
Based on subjective survival probability questions in the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), we use an econometric model to estimate the determinants of individual-level uncertainty about personal longevity. This model is built around the modal response hypothesis (MRH), a mathematical expression of the idea that survey responses of 0%, 50%, or 100% to probability questions indicate a high level of uncertainty about the relevant probability. We show that subjective survival expectations in 2002 line up very well with realized mortality of the HRS respondents between 2002 and 2010. We show that the MRH model performs better than typically used models in the literature of subjective probabilities. Our model gives more accurate estimates of low probability events and it is able to predict the unusually high fraction of focal 0%, 50%, and 100% answers observed in many data sets on subjective probabilities. We show that subjects place too much weight on parents’ age at death when forming expectations about their own longevity, whereas other covariates such as demographics, cognition, personality, subjective health, and health behavior are under weighted. We also find that less educated people, smokers, and women have less certain beliefs, and recent health shocks increase uncertainty about survival, too.
登录
查看更多内容
DOI：
10.1198/jbes.2009.08098
发表时间：
2010-04-01
期刊：
Journal of business & economic statistics : a publication of the American Statistical Association
影响因子：
--
作者：
Manski CF;Molinari F
通讯作者：
Molinari F
影响因子：
1.9
作者：
Bommier, Antoine;Villeneuve, Bertrand
通讯作者：
Villeneuve, Bertrand
DOI：
10.1177/0272989x11404077
发表时间：
2012-03
期刊：
Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making
影响因子：
--
作者：
Bruine de Bruin W;Carman KG
通讯作者：
Carman KG
DOI：
10.1006/obhd.1999.2868
发表时间：
2000-01-01
影响因子：
4.6
作者：
de Bruin, WB;Fischhoff, B;Halpern-Felsher, BL
通讯作者：
Halpern-Felsher, BL
影响因子：
6.1
作者：
HECKMAN, J;SINGER, B
通讯作者：
SINGER, B