A regression discontinuity analysis of the social distancing recommendations for older adults in Sweden during COVID-19.
A regression discontinuity analysis of the social distancing recommendations for older adults in Sweden during COVID-19.
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DOI：
10.1093/eurpub/ckac101
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发表时间：
2022-10-03
影响因子：
4.4
通讯作者：
Bjork, Jonas
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bonander, Carl;Stranges, Debora;Gustavsson, Johanna;Almgren, Matilda;Inghammar, Malin;Moghaddassi, Mahnaz;Nilsson, Anton;Pujol, Joan Capdevila;Steves, Claire;Franks, Paul W.;Gomez, Maria F.;Fall, Tove;Bjork, Jonas
本文调查了在2019年冠状病毒病(新冠肺炎)大流行的第一波期间(2020年3月至7月)，非强制性和特定年龄的社会距离建议对瑞典隔离行为和疾病结果的影响。该政策规定，70岁或70岁以上的人应避免拥挤的地方，并与家庭外的人接触。我们使用回归不连续设计-结合来自瑞典COVID症状研究的自我报告的隔离数据(n = 96 053；年龄范围：39-79 )和严重新冠肺炎疾病(住院或死亡，n = 21 804)和确诊病例(n = 48 984)的国家登记数据(年龄范围：39-100+岁)-来估计该政策的效果。我们的初步分析显示，在70岁的门槛上，每周前往拥挤场所的人数急剧下降(−13%)，严重的新冠肺炎病例(−16%)。这些结果意味着，根据型号的不同，特定年龄的建议可以预防大约1,800-2,700例严重新冠肺炎病例。似乎在瑞典新冠肺炎大流行的第一波期间，这些非强制性的、针对年龄的建议帮助控制了疾病，而不是没有实施针对老年人的社会疏远政策。我们的研究提供了关于人群在面对一种新病毒时如何对非强制性的、特定于年龄的社会疏远政策做出反应的经验数据。
This article investigates the impact of a non-mandatory and age-specific social distancing recommendation on isolation behaviours and disease outcomes in Sweden during the first wave of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic (March to July 2020). The policy stated that people aged 70 years or older should avoid crowded places and contact with people outside the household. We used a regression discontinuity design—in combination with self-reported isolation data from COVID Symptom Study Sweden (n = 96 053; age range: 39–79 years) and national register data (age range: 39–100+ years) on severe COVID-19 disease (hospitalization or death, n = 21 804) and confirmed cases (n = 48 984)—to estimate the effects of the policy. Our primary analyses showed a sharp drop in the weekly number of visits to crowded places (−13%) and severe COVID-19 cases (−16%) at the 70-year threshold. These results imply that the age-specific recommendations prevented approximately 1800–2700 severe COVID-19 cases, depending on model specification. It seems that the non-mandatory, age-specific recommendations helped control COVID-19 disease during the first wave of the pandemic in Sweden, as opposed to not implementing a social distancing policy aimed at older adults. Our study provides empirical data on how populations may react to non-mandatory, age-specific social distancing policies in the face of a novel virus.
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影响因子：
9.3
作者：
Liu Y;Morgenstern C;Kelly J;Lowe R;CMMID COVID-19 Working Group;Jit M
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.2012520117
发表时间：
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影响因子：
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作者：
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影响因子：
6.1
作者：
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通讯作者：
Van der Klaauw, W
影响因子：
6.7
作者：
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通讯作者：
Clegg, Andrew
DOI：
10.1016/j.socscimed.2021.114335
发表时间：
2021-10
期刊：
Social science & medicine (1982)
影响因子：
--
作者：
Lin T;Harris EA;Heemskerk A;Van Bavel JJ;Ebner NC
通讯作者：
Ebner NC