What does the COVID-19 pandemic mean for the next decade of onchocerciasis control and elimination?
What does the COVID-19 pandemic mean for the next decade of onchocerciasis control and elimination?
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DOI：
10.1093/trstmh/traa193
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发表时间：
2021-03-06
影响因子：
2.2
通讯作者：
Basáñez MG
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hamley JID;Blok DJ;Walker M;Milton P;Hopkins AD;Hamill LC;Downs P;de Vlas SJ;Stolk WA;Basáñez MG
2019冠状病毒病（COVID-19）大流行中断了伊维菌素治疗盘尾丝虫病的大规模药物给药（MDA）。数学建模可以帮助预测错过/延迟的MDA将如何影响短期流行病学趋势和到2030年消除的前景。两个盘尾丝虫病传播模型（EPIONCHO-IBM和ONCHOSIM）用于模拟不同治疗史和传播环境下的微丝蚴流行趋势、消除概率和扭转盘尾丝虫微丝蚴流行率和强度的年龄分布，假设没有中断、中断1年（2020年）或中断2年（2020-2021年）。一年两次的MDA或MDA恢复后增加覆盖率作为补救策略进行了调查。MDA历史较短的方案和干预前地方性高的环境将受到最大的影响。在减轻COVID-19对MDA的影响方面，一年两次的MDA比增加覆盖率更有效。已经改为两年一次的千年发展目标评估的方案应受到最低程度的影响。在治疗史短的高传播环境中，2年的中断可能导致儿童（EPIONCHO-IBM）和成人（ONCHOSIM）的微丝蚴负荷增加。治疗史较短（每年一次的MDA）的项目应优先用于治疗性半年一次的MDA。微丝蚴感染量的增加可能对发病率和死亡率产生短期和长期影响。这些结果可以指导决策，以减轻COVID-19对消除盘尾丝虫病的影响。
Mass drug administration (MDA) of ivermectin for onchocerciasis has been disrupted by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Mathematical modelling can help predict how missed/delayed MDA will affect short-term epidemiological trends and elimination prospects by 2030. Two onchocerciasis transmission models (EPIONCHO-IBM and ONCHOSIM) are used to simulate microfilarial prevalence trends, elimination probabilities and age profiles of Onchocerca volvulus microfilarial prevalence and intensity for different treatment histories and transmission settings, assuming no interruption, a 1-y (2020) interruption or a 2-y (2020–2021) interruption. Biannual MDA or increased coverage upon MDA resumption are investigated as remedial strategies. Programmes with shorter MDA histories and settings with high pre-intervention endemicity will be the most affected. Biannual MDA is more effective than increasing coverage for mitigating COVID-19’s impact on MDA. Programmes that had already switched to biannual MDA should be minimally affected. In high-transmission settings with short treatment history, a 2-y interruption could lead to increased microfilarial load in children (EPIONCHO-IBM) and adults (ONCHOSIM). Programmes with shorter (annual MDA) treatment histories should be prioritised for remedial biannual MDA. Increases in microfilarial load could have short- and long-term morbidity and mortality repercussions. These results can guide decision-making to mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on onchocerciasis elimination.
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影响因子：
3.8
作者：
Jacob BG;Loum D;Lakwo TL;Katholi CR;Habomugisha P;Byamukama E;Tukahebwa E;Cupp EW;Unnasch TR
通讯作者：
Unnasch TR
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Coffeng LE;Stolk WA;Hoerauf A;Habbema D;Bakker R;Hopkins AD;de Vlas SJ
通讯作者：
de Vlas SJ
影响因子：
--
作者：
通讯作者：
--
影响因子：
56.3
作者：
Chesnais, Cedric B.;Nana-Djeunga, Hugues C.;Boussinesq, Michel
通讯作者：
Boussinesq, Michel
DOI：
10.1080/00034983.1987.11812118
发表时间：
1987-06-01
影响因子：
--
作者：
RENZ, A;FUGLSANG, H;ANDERSON, J
通讯作者：
ANDERSON, J